Joshua Hayes

Nothing Fuels a Market Rally Like Free Money

PS: Yes, obviously, I am very disturbed by the Senate, House, Pres, and more so the Fed. I do not approve of anything this administration or the Fed is doing. Don't think I am being polyanic, by any means. I am simply trying to make a living the best way I know how: in the stock market. That means my opinions mean NOTHING. The ONLY thing that matters is what the market is saying TODAY. :)

Nothing Fuels a Market Rally Like Free Money

then and only then should anyone being trying to call a top.

that should obviously (I know someone will say something :)):

then and only then should anyone try calling a top.

Nothing Fuels a Market Rally Like Free Money

Knowing your history of past stock market cycles and past big winning stocks would go a VERY LONG way, with most posters.

Do not try to call tops. Let the market tell you when it is time to top. You will have climax runs (just like in Jan-March 2000 and July-November 2007) in leading stocks. When these stocks show topping signals that William O' Neil has painstakingly proven via research going back over 120 years, then and only then should anyone being trying to call a top.

Do you know how many stocks are flying higher, with price over the 50 dma, with the 50 dma over the 200 dma, and volume consistently over the 50 dva? There are too many to name! So many stocks are running but are not quite yet showing climax tops. So until you see these climax tops (which are obvious to those of us with extensive training in technical analysis--14 years) there should be absolutely no reason to call tops or predict the end of the rally. Just go with the trend until it ends. When it ends, move to cash, and then get short, if a new bear market is starting.

If you know your history and actually give yourself more than one year to "make-it-rich in the stock market," you might find that this game isn't as complicated as 99% of the comments on every post on Seeking Alpha makes it sound like it is.

My system: a form (my own) of CANSLIM. Can you learn this system in one year? Absolutely not! This stuff takes years. This is my 14th year in this business and the only thing I know is that I know nothing. However, my charts know EVERYTHING there is to know at that exact moment. Do surprises happen? Uh, yeah. Of course. This is called life. Is TA a crystal ball? Heck no. Think of TA as a windsock. If the wind is blowing to the west then it is blowing to the west. If the market is moving higher, then it is moving higher. Fighting the trend, calling tops/bottoms, and making your ego bigger than the market is a sure-fire way to poor performance and/or a complete burnout.

This game isn't easy. Those that get rich quick usually end up giving me all the money they made that "easy first month/year."

Listen, I am a Conservative and I am a hardcore proponent for lower taxes and less government. However, how do you all "know" that everything will end bad? You don't. You are only speculating on the future. The only thing you should be speculating on our stocks and you should only be doing that if you really know what you are doing. You might be able to tell someone you know what you are doing but inside your own head you know if you are lying to yourself or not.

Bottom line: When the market is moving up and stocks out there like RINO, CTFO, OMN, PAET, RTLX, TXIC, AXU, and BZ, since the rally started in March, are making such big gains, there is absolutely no reason to top call this market until you actually see some real topping action. I have been hearing top callers the WHOLE way and look at the gains they missed. Such a shame.

Here is a helpful hint and it is real simple. Go take a look at the history of this, if you don't believe the truth. If you would ONLY go long stocks when the general market is above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA over the 200 DMA and go short stocks when the general market is below the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA, 90% of you would CRUSH your returns (obviously, I am not talking to everyone so please don't attack me too hard ;)). I am simply stating facts and nothing but facts. I have all the proof you need and I did not even come up with all the info. These guys did:

William J. O'Neil
Jesse Livermore
Nic Darvas
Bernard Baruch
Gerald Loeb
Richard Wyckoff
Jack Dreyfus

If any of you do not know the stories and history of these individuals, you might want to take some time the next downtrend (you guys call it a "bear market") and read-up on some of these guys. :)

me:

bear market = no such thing

bull market = no such thing

there is only a market "in an uptrend" or a market "in a downtrend." When you call it a bull or bear, you might not realize this but you will subconsciouly adopt that position and hold onto it more than you would had you simply called it "a market moving up" or "a market moving down."

Hey, when the market tops, I'll write something for Seeking Alpha proving why we will have a real top. Just like I did on RealMoney.com in early 2008 when I was initially called a "fool." I welcome the friendly and non responses to this post, if there will be any at all. Once again, aloha.

This is my good act of the month and I hope you all enjoyed this being typed from a very prime surf location on the upper west shores of Maui. Mahalo for reading and aloha nui everyone, surfs up!...just like the market.

There Goes the Housing Recovery

TraderMark you continue to impress me. Excellent use of the video too.

Gafisa's Quick 20% Return in Two Weeks

You are very welcome, Mark.

Ten Banks Repay TARP Funds as Quality Growth Stocks and the NASDAQ Take the Lead

You are very welcome. I am so sorry I missed this comment Omo. That particular post (I can tell by the ending alone) was written by MarketSpeculator who is also a contributor to SA (though it has been a long time) and we are both mirror images of each other in investing philosophy. Sadly, he is taller and stronger than me. :( LOL.

Like I said, I apologize for not getting back you sooner. Aloha.

Stocks Fold to Selling Pressure as Heavy Volume Blankets the Market

Wow! How very kind of you, Apex. I appreciate it. That helps in the search so thank you very much. Even a bad rating helps :).

I am glad that you are able to use the videos in your trading. Aloha Apex and I wish you the best luck out there! :)

Gafisa's Quick 20% Return in Two Weeks

TraderMark,

I just want to say congrats. I have been in this game a long time (though I am only 30--started young) and usually I am VERY HARD to impress. My friend I must say I am very happy to tell you that you are an awesome read. I enjoy all of your articles and if I did not run my own money I would definitely have the confidence to invest with you. You are a class act. You give your selections in real-time and you are easy to track (unlike Cramer but what professional actually follows him?? I think no one who does this for a living, unless you are an intraday trader).

You have been writing for only a short time on SA (I think the end of summer 2007) but the volume and quality you put out is BEYOND impressive. I know some people think I am sucking up but, trust me, I don't have to do that and this is not my MO (you might be the first trader I have said this to publicly and that says something after doing this for 13 yrs). I may run a paid site but I still recommend that others read you. I also tell them that if they don't want to run their own money you would make an excellent option when you are up and running. Bottom line: I am very hard to impressive after almost 13 years of doing this as a hobby and also 10 years for a living.

Keep the post coming and keep doing what you do. You are a wonderful read in a market where there are few truly talented REAL traders that actually HOLD positions and can write. Keep up the great work buddy! I'll be reading till I die and if you go to a paid site I would sign up. Only GaryBSmith and RevShark have taken my money. You would be the third.

Nice job on GFA but don't be afraid to buy those breakouts when the trend is up on volume. :) Aloha from Maui and I wish you continued success in your amazing writing/trading. I am sure you already know, but you are doing an amazing job.

In such a short time so many people know you and I think it is great! Once again, aloha from Maui!

History Lesson: September Is Best Month for Gold

as long as Gold holds the 50 DMA there is no reason to get bearish on Gold. Gold has been a great long since 2001 and will continue to be in the long-term as long as the Fed/Congress continue with their reckless dollar policy. I think investors with a long-term horizon with capital in the stock market would be wise to look to hedge their investments with Gold/Silver bullion or GLD/SLV if bullion is not available to purchase. The long-term prospects for GLD/SLV are very good when you look at the massive wealth-destroying printing job the Fed is doing via the St. Louis Fed charts. Until I see some real drawdown in our spending/debt, there is no way I can dare abandon my long-term Gold/Silver long position. I do NOT think it is wise to invest all your money in Gold/Silver. However, if you are a good stock picker like those of us at BigWaveTrading.com and have years of experience and can really get your port moving it might be of benefit to move some of that money into GLD/SLV just in case. Though those of us that know how to invest can actively go long/short, sometimes there are moments when a good long or short position does not exist. During these times it is nice comfort in knowing that you have some money in Gold/Silver that is working for you. I never have problem finding stocks to invest in on the long or short side. However, I realize most people are not like me and thus need to have a longer-term position. My best recommendation is to either invest quarterly in a VERY STRONG growth/value mutual fund with strong 3-yr, 5-yr, and (if available) 10-yr track records or I recommend going long GLD/SLV. Better yet, I prefer that you own Gold and Silver bullion. However, unless you store it at your home you will have to pay the safety deposit fees. A small price to pay for ultimate security. I am an active investor but there are two long-term investing trends that I am SURE will pay out over a 20+ year period.

Factory Index Gives a Boost to Stocks

I apologize. I mean Sunday night. Tonight I am working on my forums (sells, watchlist, port. weightings) and my longs analysis/charts.

In case you are not familiar with my work my work is ALWAYS fully updated before 4/5am EST M-F. Since I live on Maui I am 6 hours behind so when I finish my work at a normal hour it is usually very late EST. However, as long as you have 15 mins. in the morning, you have time to get yourself fully ready for the day's market session.

Aloha. :)

Factory Index Gives a Boost to Stocks

This was for Friday's market. Monday's commentary will be posted tonight (Hawaii tonight).

Why I'm Shorting DeVry

TraderMark you do a great job and I am sorry that those of us with track records like ours have to deal with this on here. This is the one thing we need to fix on Seeking Alpha. Too many "fundamentalist" LOVE TO COME IN AND ATTACK "technicians" without realizing MOST TECHNICIANS USE FUNDAMENTALS. We just grew a brain and studied history (try subscribing to Investors Business Daily--what a concept huh?) and realized that TA DOES WORK.

Old people...grow up!!!! and learn what works. Cutting your losses and combining technicals/fundamentals ALWAYS WORKS!

Why I'm Shorting DeVry

He shorted it too late...I am sure he didn't forget to cut his loss. Fundamentals ONLY guys are seriously NUTS and a BIG PROBLEM for individual investors. I recommend that everyone reading this STAY FAR AWAY FROM ANYONE with the name Buffet in their nickname. Unless it is Buffet....be careful.


On Jun 02 08:35 AM BuffettMaster wrote:

> Looks like technical analysis has failed today. Any thoughts on changing/abandoning
> your short?

Why I'm Shorting DeVry

Yeah Technical Analysis failed...wow OMG can you believe that TA isn't perfect!!!! I KNOW I am SHOCKED TOO!!!!!! Uh...it worked in Feb and still works. I am leaving with a profit. How many 1000% returns do you have under your belt the past 10 years? I have over 20. Do you think TA or FA found them...uhm..BOTH DID!!! Unbelievable, those that "only" focus on TA and then ONE time someone gets a call wrong and come in and bash tradermark. LOL. Pathetic squirlemaster.

SELLING FINAL DV SHORT FOR A 11% gain 22% on margin....Yeah that REALLLLLLLY FAILED. What are those big gains below....Failure??? Another angry Buffet fundamental douche-bag. Try COMBINING fundamentals with technicals. Then maybe you can be long and have gains like this IN UNDER TWO MONTHS:

top longs w/ TOTAL returns since purchase making money TODAY: CKEC 87% GRRF 88% FREE 52% KONG 84% ATSG 76% FIRE 48% SIGA 55% ASCA 51% PALM 37% CAST 33% WAVX 31% ADAT 27% ISTA 25% ARST 29% ...that is just SOME of our big winners at BigWaveTrading.com...just SOME...please review my past big winners, look at the charts, and TELL ME THAT TA DOES NOT WORK!!!!! I DARE YOU!!!!

Where are your gains like this????? Buffetmaster????

Where are your 50% to 90% gains in 2008 like me on POT, MOS, AAPL, RIMM, GOOG????? Have you EVER studied my past big winners on my website? Of course not. People like you find ONE stupid TIME your point works and people like me have to come up and destroy it for you. TraderMark shouldn't have to read stupid comments like yours. Pathetic.

The problem with this analysis on this post was that the writer is shorting DV TOO LATE...DV was a sHORT IN FEBRUARY NOT NOW.

Commodities' Best Month Since 1974 - Is This Supposed to Be Good News?

The DBC and GCC charts tell the story. Those are SOME EXTREMELY bullish moves off the lows there! Very bullish. Tons of accumulation, excellent price action, with all the key ingredients for massive inflation...set em up and knock em down.

long: China, India, and massive inflation

short: the LIES from the Obama administration and all the lemmings that just go on day-to-day without any facts impacting their lives. No matter how people feel, they are about to lose a TON OF PURCHASING power. Well..they already have. Time to lose more. DBC and GCC is a rocking that means the inflation bug is a coming a knocking.