Shane Jocelyn, CFA

Hello gents, thanks for all your comments. With regards to capital raising intentions, the preference shares of the government step-up by 25% in principal in Q1 2014.

Management needs to make a decision soon on how they are going to raise the capital so that they can retain an investment bank for the capital raising and go through the lengthy procedure of raising so much in the capital markets.

Of course, they could do nothing and take a €450M increase in debt while not getting any fresh inflow of capital but this would in my opinion be extremely incompetent and unnecessary. Not to say it definitely will not happen - I am never one to second guess banking executives. But either way, this is a big decision that the market in Ireland is waiting on and pushing for.

The real challenge is pinpointing the opportunities within Europe such as which tranches and maturities are banks looking to tender. But like an active M&A sector, it does add to the attractiveness and does not appear to be currently priced in to the market.

Ireland is a dark horse to the extent that their constitution is the only one in Europe which states that any changes in EU policy must be implemented via a referendum. However anti-EU Britain and Greece are, politicians can always be manipulated by leading power houses in Europe to comply with the wishes of the Union. This is not the case in Ireland; if the public don't like the look of something, they'll bin it (Lisbon Treaty) and this is where the added risk lies with the country - but with political stability and public support for Enda Kenny, possibly worth taking.

A large part of this investment decision is discretionary in deciding how likely it is that the deal will go through. Your first example involves Janus capital which is the largest shareholder of CRL opposing the acquisition.

Arbitrage is a riskless profit and in this case, the risks are certainly inherent.

Did you notice that institutional holdings only account 5% of total outstanding shares!? The last three weeks have seen over 260,000 traded which accounts for almost 3% of total shares. Does this mean that over half of all institutional investors have been selling? It looks like insider selling or retail investors have been a little spooked for one reason or another.

You hit the nail on the head - paper money from Tokyo to New York is under severe pressure where no currency is safe from a serious devaluation. The saving grace for all currencies is probably going to be the fact that they are all as bad as each other! Therefore, the battle of wills will likely ensue on which currency is doomed to fail - probably resulting in a stalemate!

Important variables such as technology, productivity and efficiency are impacting factors on the market. To say that we are going to be in a stagnant non-improving business environment is dismissive of the fact that we have eternal pipelines of renewable energy, technology and related ingenuities coming through to meet demands of the global economy.

The most notable factor Gold is dealing with at the moment is that investors are looking for a currency in order to avoid deep double figure depreciations in currencies such as the Euro, Dollar, Yen and GBP. All majors have a cloud around them and this is what is forcing excess cash flows towards the shining metal.

There are more dimensions to cyclical trends than just demographics. It forms an important ingredient to a countries labour force but think also about efficiency, productivity and technology. Consider credit flows to and fro assets classes.

Also recognise that there is a deep integration in the world economy and we are experiencing huge population growth in emerging markets such as India and Africa. These could easily offset developed markets such as Europe and the US which are stagnating in demographics.

Woops - meant FORM on my comment!...

It seems everyone is trying to decipher where/how we will come out the other end of this prolonged cycle!?...

The UK had a policy in the 1980's of "Get on your bike" meaning that people should go out there and find a job. If they were not proactive enough, that was tough!

A harsh way in taming the public but perhaps we have just got used to an easy life? Perhaps people have been spoilt not only by credit/mortgages/bonuses but also by the government?! And after credit has drained, it is now time for government to drain cash flow towards welfare. Unfortunately, bonuses have reared their ugly head and it is likely this will be a reoccurring theme.

This flock into treasuries has not been thought out by investors - in fact, the reason they have moved into treasuries is because they do not know what to think or believe any more.

Nothing is untouchable in the investment world and the more that this psychology rolls over, the more vulnerable the asset class will become. This could well be the case with US government bonds but time will tell.

Now that global markets are so interconnected, there is a multiplied impact with regards to data sources, global macro economic data and a magnified list of caveats and decision making information. This added dimension now means that the ingestion of data in the short term is often the catalyst to create this irrational price behaviour.

Over time there is generally an outstretched period of time where markets become efficient. However, markets are efficient using the data of the past, it usually misrepresents the present and is grossly irrational when it comes to interpreting what lies ahead in the future.

RIMM is a company which is experiencing a lack of FUTURE confidence in its ability to be a leading smart phone operator. Should Apple be able to tap into the corporate market - which appears to be in gradual transition, as more firms give employees a choice.

Although current projections, cash flow and related ratio's are suggesting a disjunction in fair value between the two companies, the market is looking further down the road and are indeed worried with what they foresee.

For all cynics of the government - us 52 week highs in treasury yields for evidence that investors have faith in the public sector as money is flooding into treasuries and government securities.

This may be because of an expected whiplash on the private sector as a result of the public sector finances. Nonetheless, low Treasury yields provides confidence in the governments ability to repay loaned capital while it depicts a deteriorating implied expectation in the economy which is led by the consumer and small businesses.

There are a lot of uncertainties with BP. This is a unique spill and is difficult to be quantified in any respect. If the spill can not be quantified then there is going to be serious difficulty in evaluating if the stock is a good deal or not.

If there is something I have learnt, it is that the markets hate uncertainty and every second that the spill continues, there is going to be an added nervousness.

Tilson is brave to jump in here - I hope he has a stop loss set in?

Analysing China's investment portfolio, there is significant exposure to Africa and there is even sustained capital allocation towards Greece. How many investors would feel comfortable and understanding if these two geographical locations were mentioned in a quarterly report!?

Chances are they will have to have a lot of faith in their investment manager. Note to yourself that China's government and the hedge fund space may and probably do have very different mandates.

Energy is as much a structural system as it is a material fuel source.

This transitional change of sourcing energy has the same scenario for renewable power. How are we to cope with energy demand if we do not have the infrastructure to route wind farms, solar power, and other related renewables across the US and the world by 2050?

The bond market is a representation of the nervous faction which continues to exist in the money managers and investors carried through from the end of the last decade.

The yield curve is a very elongated cyclical data point powerful enough to influence the market in ways unimagined. To correlate it to economic growth is far too difficult as credit flow is extremely slow to reach the consumer.

Firstly, there is an immediate advantage for banks and financial institutions. They can instantaneously take advantage of the spreads on offer to loan and deposit capital. As the short end is offering so little, there is not only an incentive to loan money to good businesses and people but there is an even greater temptation to seek yield by ripping apart a room of dangerous ideas for how to create/invest in risky assets. These assets last came in the form of CDO's and packaged mortgage products. What will be the next?