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Shane Jocelyn, CFA  

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  • A European Bank Set For A Strong Rebound: Bank Of Ireland [View article]
    Hello gents, thanks for all your comments. With regards to capital raising intentions, the preference shares of the government step-up by 25% in principal in Q1 2014.

    Management needs to make a decision soon on how they are going to raise the capital so that they can retain an investment bank for the capital raising and go through the lengthy procedure of raising so much in the capital markets.

    Of course, they could do nothing and take a €450M increase in debt while not getting any fresh inflow of capital but this would in my opinion be extremely incompetent and unnecessary. Not to say it definitely will not happen - I am never one to second guess banking executives. But either way, this is a big decision that the market in Ireland is waiting on and pushing for.
    Mar 25, 2013. 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value In European Credit [View article]
    The real challenge is pinpointing the opportunities within Europe such as which tranches and maturities are banks looking to tender. But like an active M&A sector, it does add to the attractiveness and does not appear to be currently priced in to the market.

    Ireland is a dark horse to the extent that their constitution is the only one in Europe which states that any changes in EU policy must be implemented via a referendum. However anti-EU Britain and Greece are, politicians can always be manipulated by leading power houses in Europe to comply with the wishes of the Union. This is not the case in Ireland; if the public don't like the look of something, they'll bin it (Lisbon Treaty) and this is where the added risk lies with the country - but with political stability and public support for Enda Kenny, possibly worth taking.
    Feb 8, 2012. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Mondays: July 19, 2010 [View article]
    A large part of this investment decision is discretionary in deciding how likely it is that the deal will go through. Your first example involves Janus capital which is the largest shareholder of CRL opposing the acquisition.

    Arbitrage is a riskless profit and in this case, the risks are certainly inherent.
    Jul 19, 2010. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bridgford's Mysterious Stock Price Collapse? Back Up the Truck [View article]
    Did you notice that institutional holdings only account 5% of total outstanding shares!? The last three weeks have seen over 260,000 traded which accounts for almost 3% of total shares. Does this mean that over half of all institutional investors have been selling? It looks like insider selling or retail investors have been a little spooked for one reason or another.
    Jul 13, 2010. 06:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Falls as Euro Survives Crisis, EC Props Up Its Banks [View article]
    You hit the nail on the head - paper money from Tokyo to New York is under severe pressure where no currency is safe from a serious devaluation. The saving grace for all currencies is probably going to be the fact that they are all as bad as each other! Therefore, the battle of wills will likely ensue on which currency is doomed to fail - probably resulting in a stalemate!
    Jul 12, 2010. 08:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Dow Hit 15,000 Within Two Years? [View article]
    Important variables such as technology, productivity and efficiency are impacting factors on the market. To say that we are going to be in a stagnant non-improving business environment is dismissive of the fact that we have eternal pipelines of renewable energy, technology and related ingenuities coming through to meet demands of the global economy.

    Jul 12, 2010. 05:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold Really an Investment? [View article]
    The most notable factor Gold is dealing with at the moment is that investors are looking for a currency in order to avoid deep double figure depreciations in currencies such as the Euro, Dollar, Yen and GBP. All majors have a cloud around them and this is what is forcing excess cash flows towards the shining metal.
    Jul 9, 2010. 11:08 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Must We Wait Eight Years for a New Bull Market? [View article]
    There are more dimensions to cyclical trends than just demographics. It forms an important ingredient to a countries labour force but think also about efficiency, productivity and technology. Consider credit flows to and fro assets classes.

    Also recognise that there is a deep integration in the world economy and we are experiencing huge population growth in emerging markets such as India and Africa. These could easily offset developed markets such as Europe and the US which are stagnating in demographics.
    Jul 8, 2010. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Debt-Free Stocks Selling at Cash [View article]
    Woops - meant FORM on my comment!...
    Jul 6, 2010. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Debt-Free Stocks Selling at Cash [View article]
    From may be a good company but if it is losing $3+ of EPS per year then there is a question of how attractive the cash is!?
    Jul 5, 2010. 08:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paolo Pellegrini: Americans Are Still 'Dissaving' [View article]
    It seems everyone is trying to decipher where/how we will come out the other end of this prolonged cycle!?...
    Jul 1, 2010. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity Histrionics [View article]
    The UK had a policy in the 1980's of "Get on your bike" meaning that people should go out there and find a job. If they were not proactive enough, that was tough!

    A harsh way in taming the public but perhaps we have just got used to an easy life? Perhaps people have been spoilt not only by credit/mortgages/bonuses but also by the government?! And after credit has drained, it is now time for government to drain cash flow towards welfare. Unfortunately, bonuses have reared their ugly head and it is likely this will be a reoccurring theme.
    Jul 1, 2010. 04:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Treasury Craze: Why Investors Are Spooked [View article]
    This flock into treasuries has not been thought out by investors - in fact, the reason they have moved into treasuries is because they do not know what to think or believe any more.

    Nothing is untouchable in the investment world and the more that this psychology rolls over, the more vulnerable the asset class will become. This could well be the case with US government bonds but time will tell.
    Jun 29, 2010. 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inefficient Markets: Should We Blame the Professors? [View article]
    Now that global markets are so interconnected, there is a multiplied impact with regards to data sources, global macro economic data and a magnified list of caveats and decision making information. This added dimension now means that the ingestion of data in the short term is often the catalyst to create this irrational price behaviour.

    Over time there is generally an outstretched period of time where markets become efficient. However, markets are efficient using the data of the past, it usually misrepresents the present and is grossly irrational when it comes to interpreting what lies ahead in the future.
    Jun 28, 2010. 05:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Worth 8.4 X Research in Motion? [View article]
    RIMM is a company which is experiencing a lack of FUTURE confidence in its ability to be a leading smart phone operator. Should Apple be able to tap into the corporate market - which appears to be in gradual transition, as more firms give employees a choice.

    Although current projections, cash flow and related ratio's are suggesting a disjunction in fair value between the two companies, the market is looking further down the road and are indeed worried with what they foresee.
    Jun 28, 2010. 04:17 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment