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Tucker Leppa

 
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  • Update: An Impressive Quarter For American Capital Agency Corp [View article]
    I will start by saying that AGNC hasn't increased their dividend 1 time since the 2Q of 2009.

    The earnings number I find most relevant when evaluating their dividend is the "net spread and dollar roll income per common share". This quarter it was $.87.

    The problem I have with AGNC is the volatility of their earnings. If you average out the last 4 quarters you get $.63, only 2 cents below the dividend. So by my estimates, if there is a decrease in dividend, it won't be very large.

    I think there is an opportunity to make money trading in AGNC, but I don't have any money invested there.
    Jul 29, 2014. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Annaly Will Increase Its Dividend Soon And Shares Should Be Purchased Before Earnings Are Released [View article]
    "This quarter ends in one week, and we will know more details around the first or second week of August, when the company reports."

    I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure their 2nd quarter ended June 30th.

    I wouldn't be surprised by an earnings miss to the low side, along with an unimpressive economic return for the second quarter. I hope I'm wrong.
    Jul 23, 2014. 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Annaly Will Increase Its Dividend Soon And Shares Should Be Purchased Before Earnings Are Released [View article]
    Since when is 1 quarter, out of the 4 quarters it has existed, with positive economic returns "killing it"? If ORC traded rationally, in-line with the industry it would be trading under $12.50.
    Jul 23, 2014. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CYS Fails To Deliver In Q2 Earnings; Defensive Portfolio Approach Earns Neutral Rating [View article]
    Yea (NYSE:CMO) has done terribly with their defensive portfolio, oh wait.
    Jul 22, 2014. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynex Capital Is The Best Buy In The MREIT Sector [View instapost]
    DX > NLY
    Therefore DX > mREIT industry

    That logic doesn't really stack up for me as I haven't been a big supporter of investing in NLY for a long time, and I continue to believe that (NYSE:CYS) is the best mREIT.
    Jul 21, 2014. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CYS Investments, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results [View article]
    Where do they get missed by $.06, I thought forecasts showed $.325 core earnings + drop? Looks like another great quarter by (NYSE:CYS). I think they have out performed the rest of the agency mREITs again this quarter.
    Jul 21, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid These 2 High-Yield Mortgage REITs [View article]
    They are very similar returns, but we will see what happens when the second quarter results come out.
    Jul 2, 2014. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Continue To Flock To Armour [View article]
    Not if Zimmer repeats the history he had with Bimini. In the long run you weren't ok, unless losing 90% of your capital was ok.
    Jun 27, 2014. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Continue To Flock To Armour [View article]
    I'm guessing because most of them are buy Drip and forget investors. Trading is a whole different story.
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Continue To Flock To Armour [View article]
    No way man, as soon as Zimmer left they turned the ship at Bimini! Just look they have a wholly-owned subsidiary who is an adviser for (ORC). I think these guys are all winners! (Note the Sarcasm).
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Continue To Flock To Armour [View article]
    "ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT company"

    Stopped reading there.
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid These 2 High-Yield Mortgage REITs [View article]
    You do realize that all your comments are pretty much worthless as all the data I used was as of the time of posting (May 7th), which is over a month ago. However, I will respond to all your points here for simplicity.

    First at the time of that post the P/B was $4.67 as you even said, meanwhile both yahoo finance and the ARR website under Key Ratios read a P/B of $5.32. Obviously I cannot prove it now as I didn't take a screen shot of the website and it has sense been changed. So to argue over it is pointless.

    Second, just using a quick glance I'm guessing you pulled the insider ownership numbers right off yahoo finance? If so it isn't even worth arguing with someone who bases their investments off those statistics as often they are wrong/out of date. I don't get the relevance of more outstanding shares to your argument...

    Last your p/b ratio is using current valuations, my post was over a month ago, how can you seriously say I made an error when it will obviously change considering the price fluctuations and also book value changes from this latest earnings report when my post was before them. At the time my ratios were correct, but of course they aren't now I don't get your point.
    Jun 25, 2014. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Increasing Your Dividend Income Instantly With Annaly Capital [View article]
    The reason NLY would never be a target of shorts is the large institutional holdings, they would never be able to drop the stock price.
    May 23, 2014. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Capital: A Deep Look Part II [View article]
    Either you can't read or you are just being a troll.
    -Tucker
    May 23, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Capital: A Deep Look Part II [View article]
    That is why it can be so dangerous to be in the non agency space. Most of the pure agency mREITs like MFA and NLY emerged from the financial crisis just fine.

    -Tucker
    May 23, 2014. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
343 Comments
209 Likes