Tucker Leppa

I will start by saying that AGNC hasn't increased their dividend 1 time since the 2Q of 2009.

The earnings number I find most relevant when evaluating their dividend is the "net spread and dollar roll income per common share". This quarter it was $.87.

The problem I have with AGNC is the volatility of their earnings. If you average out the last 4 quarters you get $.63, only 2 cents below the dividend. So by my estimates, if there is a decrease in dividend, it won't be very large.

I think there is an opportunity to make money trading in AGNC, but I don't have any money invested there.

"This quarter ends in one week, and we will know more details around the first or second week of August, when the company reports."

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure their 2nd quarter ended June 30th.

I wouldn't be surprised by an earnings miss to the low side, along with an unimpressive economic return for the second quarter. I hope I'm wrong.

Yea (NYSE:CMO) has done terribly with their defensive portfolio, oh wait.

DX > NLY
Therefore DX > mREIT industry

That logic doesn't really stack up for me as I haven't been a big supporter of investing in NLY for a long time, and I continue to believe that (NYSE:CYS) is the best mREIT.

Where do they get missed by $.06, I thought forecasts showed $.325 core earnings + drop? Looks like another great quarter by (NYSE:CYS). I think they have out performed the rest of the agency mREITs again this quarter.

They are very similar returns, but we will see what happens when the second quarter results come out.

Not if Zimmer repeats the history he had with Bimini. In the long run you weren't ok, unless losing 90% of your capital was ok.

The reason NLY would never be a target of shorts is the large institutional holdings, they would never be able to drop the stock price.

Either you can't read or you are just being a troll.
-Tucker

You'd have to be a brave man to short a mortgage REIT with a 17% dividend yield.

-Tucker

https://bit.ly/RUH31Q;highlight=

Never use Yahoo if you're looking for a company's financial information, use the 10-Q, 10-K or their press release. Also you don't want to use the GAAP net income, use the Core Earnings, as it is more representative of the dividends. You could also include drop income, but from what I've seen only CYS and AGNC have drop income. So I'd look at the $.35 a share number as earnings go. Hope this helps.
-Tucker

How could you possibly call it "much safer" when you have no idea what assets they have invested in? I believe in the financial crisis most of the non-agency space was taken out.

10 year treasury yield just dipped to the lowest its been in 7 months... I do see a decline in earnings, especially if they were hedged improperly whether it will be 25% will depend if they do another public offering of common stock that is dilutive as opposed to one that is accretive.

I don't know what it is, but I just want to donk people on the head when they say stuff like this.

Excuse me?

Regardless whether you bought in 2008 or 2010 or 2011, when the price declines it will still impact your net asset value. An investor should always be evaluating his investments in my opinion.

They haven't ever done a conference call, and I'm not sure why. You could probably ask via investor relations contact.

ANH and CYS are trading at the largest discount to book in the industry. CYS had 8.4% economic returns last quarter ARR had 1%.

Yea that was Buffet

I would say 2014... their portfolio still over 50% in 30 year fixed and significantly higher leverage. He is definitely making a bet not many mREITs are making.