Red Hat: Guidance Raised, Rally Continues As Cash Flow Shines

Gary Alexander
31.2K Followers

Summary

  • Red Hat posted a home run Q2, with revenues up 21% and OCF up 48%, despite the maturity of its core product, Red Hat Enterprise Linux.
  • Red Hat is seeing significantly increased traction in JBoss Middleware and its other application development technologies, with this segment growing 44% y/y and contributing to the majority of Q2 growth.
  • The company meaningfully raised top and bottom line guidance for the full year, pointing to revenue acceleration in FY18 (previous guidance didn't show acceleration).
  • The stock is up ~5% after hours as investors cheer continued growth far beyond expectations (the company exceeded top-line consensus by 4%).

By all modern standards, Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) is old. Founded over 20 years ago and still heavily anchored on its core, “boring” flagship product, one would expect Red Hat’s growth to have tapered off by now - especially as it hits the $2.5 billion run rate mark.

But Red Hat’s Q2 print showed that growth tapering is far from the truth - in fact, it looks like Red Hat’s growth is still firing on all cylinders. And unlike other large-cap, multi-billion revenue software names still growing at 20% (aka, Salesforce (NYSE: CRM)), Red Hat also is generating massive year-on-year improvements in cash flow and profitability.

Red Hat’s successful quarterly reveal is a validation of its open-source business model - that a company can indeed distribute an “upgraded” version of an open-source project like Linux and sell it on a subscription basis to corporates who need professional support and enterprise features to run it, despite the core software being freely available to download and use. Red Hat’s flagship Enterprise Linux is decades old now and is a multi-billion dollar product line, and it’s still growing at double digits. We also note that Cloudera (NASDAQ: CLDR), another open-source distributor for Apache Hadoop, also is trading up after-hours in sympathy with Red Hat’s success.

Despite tremendous performance this year - Red Hat’s stock is up more than 50% - its valuation is propped up by fundamentals, not hype. Red Hat still trades at revenue and OCF multiples that are comparable, if not below, its peers in large-cap software. With Red Hat’s position as the brand-name distributor of Enterprise Linux, and with Linux a necessary OS for running many core applications, investors are encouraged to stick with Red Hat on the back of its continued growth trajectory.

See Red Hat's YTD performance in

This article was written by

31.2K Followers
With combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017. He has been quoted in many web publications and his articles are syndicated to company pages in popular trading apps like Robinhood.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long CLDR. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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