Gold And The December Curse

Summary

  • Gold fails just $15.10 below the 2016 high.
  • The Fed turbocharges the sell-off.
  • Gold hates higher rates more than it loves a weak dollar.
  • $1281.30 must hold for a higher low.
  • The December curse could take gold lower.

For two months, the price of gold moved steadily higher rising from a low of $1211.10 per ounce on July 10 to a high of $1362.40 on September 8. The gradual move that took the yellow metal over $150 higher was slow and steady without too much drama of big dips or spikes to the upside. The appreciation over the period amounted to a crawl higher. Over the period, gold averaged a little more than a $2.50 per day gain.

A pair of flash crashes in June, and early July took gold to its July 10 low. Large selling orders during typically illiquid hours for COMEX futures during early European and Asian trading caused the price of gold to spike lower. However, gold rallied for several reasons from that July 10 bottom. The dollar index has been moving appreciably lower throughout 2017, and during the summer it approached critical support at the 91.88 level on the index. A weaker dollar tends to be supportive for the prices of gold and other precious metals. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape became a source of fear and uncertainty particularly surrounding events on the Korean Peninsula. Gold reached its most recent high earlier this month, and since then the price has been correcting to the downside.

Gold fails just $15.10 below the 2016 high

On September 8, gold reached a high of $1362.40 on the active month December futures contract. Source: CQG

As the daily chart highlights, the yellow metal ran out of steam at the early September high and has been falling since. Source: CQG

The weekly chart illustrates that gold made a run at the high of $1377.50 from back in July 2016 and the December contract came within $15.10 of that level. However, the precious metal could not muster the strength to challenge the critical level

This article was written by

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Andrew Hecht is a 35-year Wall Street veteran covering commodities and precious metals.

He runs the investing group The Hecht Commodity Report, one of the most comprehensive commodities services available. It covers the market movements of 20 different commodities and provides bullish, bearish and neutral calls; directional trading recommendations, and actionable ideas for traders. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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