Bitcoin Only Has One Way To Go If This Is True

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General Expert
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Summary

  • I believe that Tether's surging supply is the major driver behind Bitcoin's explosive appreciation.
  • Tether Limited is likely issuing bogus Tethers, which is equivalent to 1 USD, which can then be used to buy Bitcoin.
  • Confidence in Tether Limited and active arbitrage between Tether/Bitcoin/USD allows Bitcoin to go in one way only.
  • The scheme will unravel if confidence in Tether Limited evaporates, or if Bitcoin rises to a point such that there is a sudden wave of selling pressure such that there can be no liquidity to complete the arbitrage.
  • Despite numerous indications of fraud, Tether's peg to the dollar is holding. Which begs the question, if enough people believe a lie, does it become the truth?

Author's update, December 11, 2017: follow-up article with additional support of fraud

I remain a Bitcoin (GBTC, COIN, RIOT, OTCPK:BITCF, BTSC, BTCS, OTC:MGTI) skeptic as I believe that the fundamental value of the cryptocurrency is zero (read Why Bitcoin Is Worthless). However, I cannot deny that it has market value. That value has been increasing, which means that some people somewhere are buying. But who? I believe that question can be answered by Tether. Through a very clever scheme, the people behind Tether can continue to send Bitcoin into the stratosphere until it reaches a not-yet-known breaking point.

What Is Tether

Tether is a cryptocurrency controlled by Tether Limited. Unlike Bitcoin, Tether is issued (not mined) and seeks to maintain a stable exchange against the dollar (i.e. tethered). This is accomplished through a reserve based model, whereby each Tether is backed by one US dollar in the company’s bank. One can acquire Tether directly through the website or trade through an exchange. One can convert Tether to USD at Tether Limited, though Tether Limited has the right to refuse for any reason. The mechanism of the reserve-based model means that the Tether/USD pair will hover around 1:1 on the market, because there would be an opportunity to arbitrage otherwise (i.e. buy/sell on the market, convert at Tether Limited, or vice versa).

Traders like tether for its portability across platforms as it is a digital token whereas transacting in USD would require much more hassle involving banks.

Surge In Supply

Now that we know how Tether works, let’s examine its supply.

Source: coinmarketcap.com

Source: coinmarketcap.com

Pretty amazing stuff. The supply of Tether has increased from virtually nothing prior to 2017 to 845 million as of the time of writing, corresponding to 845 million USD. That’s the asset size of a large community bank.

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Creator of the Core Value Portfolio. The goal is simple but not easy. By shooting for an extraordinary goal of compounding capital at 20% annually over the long-term, the portfolio embraces concentration and goes through dramatic swings. Those without conviction will sell when positions don't go their way, but the Core Value Portfolio always takes advantage when the market is wrong.The Core Value Portfolio has significantly outperformed the market since its inception, but it also experienced extended periods of underperformance. This is a sacrifice that I'm willing to make for the sake of achieving superior returns over the long-term."No one can know everything. But still try."Contact: generalexpert86 [g]mail

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in TETHER over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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