Weekly Wrap: Are Headwinds Mounting That Could Lead Investors To Question Growth Expectations?

Tematica Research
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Summary

  • Rising oil price, rising interest rates, rising inflationary pressure with earnings growth expectations at the higher end of the historical spectrum.
  • US manufacturing remains strong but showing signs of slowing.
  • Increased political gridlock likely after the mid-term election.
  • Geopolitical risks are rising and remain underpriced by the markets.

There are days where you feel like the world is just slapping you in the face. This week some of those dealing with a Senate hearing you have may vaguely heard about (ugh) are likely feeling that way as are, I suspect, Elon Musk fans and I still cannot even think about my wounded 49ers, but I think this guy really gets the award for a rough one right in the face.

The Markets

Equities

Speaking of things not going as one might hope, as we close the books on the September quarter, the major market indices ended with a bit of a whimper as they mostly headed lower this week. Let's review the blow by blow of the last few days.

Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed in the red and the Nasdaq closed flat on the news that China canceled the trade talks that were scheduled for this week. Given that China's leader is not facing any election, ever, it stands to reason that the nation would do what it can to apply additional pressure to America's leadership with an impending election that could alter the balance of power. This trade war/skirmish/campaign/scrimmage is unlikely to end anytime soon or easily given that both sides think they have the stronger hand.

Tuesday was a repeat of Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 losing additional ground while the Nasdaq gained slightly, up +0.2%. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised rates as expected and removed a key phrase, "accommodative policy", from its traditional statement. Stocks had been higher prior to the announcement but dropped after its release, with the S&P 500 closing down -0.3%, the Dow down -0.4% and the Nasdaq down -0.2%.

Thursday, the S&P 500 broke its 4-day losing streak, gaining +0.3%, the Dow up +0.2% and the Nasdaq

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We see Investment themes at work and at play every day in the economy — oftentimes across industries and categories — and other aspects of day to day life. It is the opposite of the typical Wall Street approach to research, which oftentimes overly focuses on a single industry at a time and results in missed opportunities. These themes are identified by looking at the intersection of shifting economics, demographics, psychographics, technologies, mixed in with regulatory mandates and other forces. In other words, looking at the real world that companies are operating in! Some businesses will adapt, while others will leap frog ahead riding these thematic tailwinds to profits and significant share price movements, and sadly there will be those left floundering too. For every Apple, there is a Palm and Blackberry. For every Facebook . . . a MySpace or Friendster. For every Netflix, there’s a Blockbuster. The list goes on and on, even in non-technology categories. By examining these thematic tailwinds, our goal is to identify mispriced securities relative to the business opportunities ahead and avoid those that are overly valued and or staring down the barrel of significant headwinds

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