How To Read 2019 Outlooks: Revealing Tidbits From Vanguard, Morningstar, Schwab, And IBD

Jan. 04, 2019 6:33 AM ET22 Comments
Jim Sloan
22.85K Followers

Summary

  • A useful 2019 outlook should be thoughtful and centered and help you establish a baseline; you should begin by considering the source.
  • Small tidbits that fall outside the normal tendencies of the institution or publication can be extremely revealing about the larger picture.
  • Vanguard is the gold standard for a reasonable and probabilistic top-down outlook founded in numbers well crunched.
  • Morningstar and Fidelity emphasize active fund managers, while Schwab's superstar Liz Ann Sonders provides frank warnings derived in part from anecdotal Main Street sources.
  • IBD - once Investors' Business Daily - provides shocking insights in departures from its normal editorial line. Bonds anyone?

The world was very young then, and many things did not yet have names, and to indicate them it was necessary to point." -Gabriel Garcia-Marquez, One Hundred Years of Solitude

Ah! as the heart grows older it will come to such sights colder by and by nor spare a sigh though worlds of wanwood leafmeal lie; and yet you will weep and know why"- Gerard Manley Hopkins, "Spring And Fall To A Young Child"

When I was a boy I often took a bus during the holidays from my small (8,000) home town of Clinton, South Carolina, for the 40-mile trip to the metropolis of Greenville (then maybe 40,000). Greenville had one brokerage with a viewable ticker tape, Thomson and McKinnon, and I delighted in sitting among the old guys in shabby suits who were glued to it. They tested me with questions about which companies the tickers stood for and I could generally answer them because the office manager gave me month-old copies of the Standard and Poor's gray book. He also let me take anything else I wanted from brokerage material spread out on a big table. I started doing this around 1957.

Nothing could have been more fun, especially as I got taken to lunch by my war hero uncle - my personal hero - an actuary/mathematician who had worked out pretty much everything about option time decay that Black and Scholes eventually got a Nobel Prize for. He explained the convertibility of puts and calls, and everything you need to know about straddles, with which he did buy/writes off the ads which were then in the margins of the Wall Street Journal. My uncle was not a fundamental investor. He explained once that he preferred stocks without earnings, like Transitron Electronics, because earnings just complicated the pure math

This article was written by

22.85K Followers
I am a retired professor, a retired investment adviser, and currently a private investor and full-time tennis pro. I bought my first stock in a custodial account in 1958. I am a student of history, particularly military and economic/market history. The intellectual passions of my retirement years have been markets, mathematics, and quantum theory. Recently I have found myself reading book after book on the thoughts and feelings of animals, and I believe they are subtly influencing some of my views. I have a cat I like a lot. I like to travel. I served in Vietnam.

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