It's Dumb To Have No Gold Amid All Of This

Feb. 21, 2019 9:59 PM ET, , , , , , , , , 29 Comments
Jared Dillian
760 Followers

Summary

  • The two biggest US stock market rallies (in the 1920s and in 1990) occurred when the budget deficit was disappearing or had disappeared.
  • Today, the opposite is happening.
  • No matter how much money the Fed prints, or what they do with their balance sheet, you can’t spend more money than you make.
  • The way you protect yourself from plans to demolish every house and kill all the cows is… gold. I mean, physical gold is a hedge on your life.

The Green New Deal is silly and not worth our attention. It implies we can have anything we want if the Federal Reserve extends credit.

Let me blow your hair back for a second.

The two biggest US stock market rallies (in the 1920s and in 1990) occurred when the budget deficit was disappearing or had disappeared.

Calvin Coolidge led the US through most of the Roaring Twenties. And he is perhaps the second-least well-understood president of the 20th century (behind only Warren Harding). Long story short: Coolidge was perhaps the biggest saver known to mankind. He ran the country like he ran a household budget. Talk about austerity—wow.

In the 1990s, I worked for the government under the Clinton administration. Clinton was not well-liked by government employees. He kept telling people to “do more with less.” No money for trips, no money for projects, no money for boondoggles.

Go look at the budget figures from the 1990s. The government size remained pretty constant, which is something. It was the closest thing we’ve had to austerity in nearly 70 years.

Today the opposite is happening.

9/11 kicked off the drunken spending spree funding new government bureaucracies and multiple wars. Dick Cheney said that deficits didn’t matter, but at least he was constrained by the bond market.

I suppose that if Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) were implemented, foreign exchange markets would have their say about it (provided we still had floating exchange rates).

Do you think it is a coincidence that the two biggest bull markets correspond with government austerity? I do not.

Monetary Mess

No matter how much money the Fed prints, or what they do with their balance sheet, you can’t spend more money than you make. You can make up a shortfall with debt (just like the government), but after a while, your creditors

This article was written by

760 Followers
I'm the editor and publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, strategist at Mauldin economics and author of the free 10th Man newsletter. In a previous life I was head of ETF trading at Lehman Brothers where I did a fair amount of trading proprietarily. I started my career in finance as a clerk on the floor of the Pacific Options Exchange, getting sandwiches. In a previous life I was a Coast Guard officer, where I did law enforcement stuff and counted fish. I'm really good at behavioral finance, though most people have a tough time figuring out what that is.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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