GasLog Back At Its Lows - Buy For The Winter Season

May 17, 2019 5:10 PM ETGasLog Ltd. (GLOG) StockGLOP, GLOG11 Comments
Seanvestments
326 Followers

Summary

  • Gaslog Ltd. is a growth-oriented, international owner, operator and manager of LNG carriers.
  • Gaslog Ltd. owns a fleet of 35 LNG Carriers, including 8 vessels on order and 15 owned by its NYSE-Listed subsidiary, GasLog Partners.
  • Charter rates for LNG vessels are seasonal and usually stronger in the second half of the year ahead of the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
  • The share price of GasLog Ltd. in the last two winter seasons has followed an extremely similar seasonality pattern with the charter rates.
  • We believe that the very recent uptick in charter rates launched the beginning of a very healthy market that would push the share price of GasLog Ltd. much higher than today's levels and we suggest that investors enter this Long trade ahead of the winter season.

GasLog Ltd. is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker GLOG and is one of the largest owners and operators of LNG vessels. It has substantially grown its fleet since its listing, primarily recycling its capital through its subsidiary, Gaslog Partners LP (GLOP) which is an MLP vehicle.

The demand for LNG is expected to grow steadily and GLOG is very well positioned to take advantage of this growth. The company enjoys economies of scale from its fleet size, including its ability to recycle capital at attractive terms through Gaslog Partners LP. GLOG is also run by a management team that has a long experience in the shipping sector and the LNG market. These are the reasons for which we believe that the current share price represents a great opportunity to enter the stock at a very opportune timing.

GLOG provides the investors with exposure to the LNG shipping markets that are usually strong around the winter time as per the below graph of DNB Bank ASA with data from Clarksons Research.

Seasonality in LNG shipping spot ratesSource: DNB Bank ASA, LNG Report dated 9 April 2019

This seasonality relates to the fact that there is increased consumption of LNG in the second part of its year. The past winter 2018-2019 was not an exception to that seasonality pattern and rates have reached about $180k per day for a TFDE vessel in November 2018 followed by a drastic decline in 2019, as per the graph below that also shows the respective increase of the rates towards the end of the year in 2016-2017, as well, albeit at lower absolute levels.

LNG Shipping Spot Rates, 2016-2019Source: DNB Bank ASA, LNG Report dated 9 April 2019

The winter in the Asian region was milder than people anticipated and the energy needs were fulfilled by the already high inventory

This article was written by

326 Followers
An occasional investor with interest in shipping related companies.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long GLOG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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