Eldorado Gold's 30% Growth Should Be Only The Beginning

Summary

  • The debt refinancing was completed.
  • Greek parliamentary elections will be held on July 7.
  • The probable new prime minister stated that permits for Skouries will be issued over the first month of his rule.
  • Eldorado Gold's share price is up by more than 30% since the early elections were first mentioned.
  • Gold price above $1,300, expected positive Q2 financial results and a real chance to finish the Skouries permitting soon, indicate further upside potential.

Eldorado Gold's (NYSE:EGO) share price experienced a notable decline after the Q1 2019 financial results were reported and after the terms of Eldorado's debt refinancing were announced. The share price reached the $3.1 level on Friday, May 24. However, the next Monday, it opened at $3.47 and it kept on climbing, up to the peak value of $4.46, reached on June 5. The sudden growth was initiated by the latest developments in the political situation in Greece and further supported by the gold price that grew from $1,280 to $1,320/toz.

The Q1 2019 financial results, released on May 2, were not good. Eldorado Gold recorded earnings of $-27 million, adjusted net earnings of $-17.9 million and operating cash flow of $-9 million. However, the bad financial results were caused by some external factors that prevented the company from selling approximately 20,000 toz gold produced at its Efemcukuru mine. Although the sales will be most probably realized this quarter, further improving the Q2 financial results, the market reaction was very negative.

The markets reacted negatively also on the terms of Eldorado Gold's debt refinancing. The company issued senior second lien notes worth $300 million. The notes were issued at a 2% discount and they bear an interest of 9.5% p.a. They will mature in 2024. Eldorado was also able to secure a $450 million credit facility, consisting of a $200 million term loan and $250 million revolving credit facility. Both, the term loan and revolver, will bear an interest of LIBOR + 2.25-3.25% (approximately 4.5-5.5% right now). The term loan should be repaid in semi-annual payments starting on June 30, 2020, and the revolver should be repaid 4 years from closing.

The proceeds of the notes offering along with the term loan and revolver will be used to redeem the $600 million

This article was written by

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Peter Arendas is an associate professor at the University of Economics in Bratislava. He has over 15 years of investing experience. Peter specializes in covering small and mid-cap companies in the resource sector with an in-depth insight into the precious and industrial metals royalty & streaming industry.

Peter is the leader of the investing group Royalty & Streaming Corner where he offers in-depth analysis of long-only investment ideas, actionable research, model portfolios, discussions of the latest news, and direct access for questions in chat. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long EGO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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