What Trade War? Star Bulk Set To Dominate 2020

Summary

  • Star Bulk Carriers is a dry bulk pure play. They are perfectly positioned for the upcoming IMO 2020 regulations, with their full fleet set to receive scrubbers this year.
  • The market is snoozing on a substantial lift in Capesize daily rates, up from $4-7k/day in mid-April to mid-$19k this week.
  • If rates follow seasonal patterns and VALE keeps resuming their iron ore exports, rates could easily clock $30k or higher TCE this fall. IMO 2020 could yield additional profits.
  • SBLK has been trading at a massive discount to NAV. The company recently brought out the 'big guns' repurchasing over 1M shares in 2 days at $8.40 (35% discount to NAV).
  • With rates on the move and the perfect fleet setup for 2020, I've recently raised my 'fair value estimate' to $14.00/sh.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Value Investor's Edge. Start your free trial today »

Star Bulk Company Overview

Image Credit: Star Bulk Carriers

Star Bulk Carriers (NASDAQ:SBLK) is a dry bulk pure play; inclusive of their latest announced acquisition on 27 May, SBLK's fleet has grown to 120 controlled vessels with 13.1M tons of combined cargo capacity. Their fleet has expanded considerably in the past year, with four total sets of acquisitions since early 2018, which now places SBLK as the largest publicly-traded dry bulk company.

Their price has improved a bit over the past few weeks, but they still trade at a considerable discount to last summer and last fall despite positive cash flow, a perfect 2020 setup, keen repurchases, and Capesize rates which are actually up y/y despite the poor headlines. The stock is down 24% y/y despite having a larger fleet and a cleaner balance sheet.

Source: Google Finance, SBLK 1y Quote

Capesize Rates Running Back

Capesize dry bulk rates have had a difficult winter and spring season, but despite the countless uninformed headlines, this has very little to do with any US-China 'Trade War' impacts, but far more so due to the horrific tailing dam collapse in Brazil, part of a major VALE (VALE) complex. This single event crushed Brazil's surging iron ore exports, which are only now starting to come back to a growth phase.

The Capesize segment depends heavily on coal and iron ore trades. Brazil is a major exporter, set to account for a large percentage of global growth, while China and India are major consumers. Brazil-Asia is one of the longest routes in the world, approximately triple the Australia-China route, so this growth displacement is set to add major growth for shipping demand even if total import growth in Asia is fairly low. Thus, the VALE dam collapse and subsequent halt in export growth was about the worst possible news the market could receive. In

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This article was written by

20.92K Followers

J Mintzmyer specializes in deep value stocks and macro analysis in the maritime shipping and energy sectors. He has earned a PhD from the Harvard Kennedy School, where he researched sanctions and trade flows. Previously, J earned an MPP from the University of Maryland, worked as a research intern with the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and earned a Bachelors in Economics from the U.S. Air Force Academy.

J is the Founder and Head of Research of the investing group Value Investor's Edge, a deep value research community focused on maritime shipping, offshore energy, and energy infrastructure. He leads a team of 11 analysts and data experts who focus exclusively on maritime shipping and related energy infrastructure. The team has delivered consistent outperformance since launch in 2015 and the long-only model portfolios have produced an average annualized return of 43% over the past 8 years. VIE offers exclusive analytics, research reports, earnings coverage, and a live chat with an engaged community of more than 750 members. Learn more here.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long SBLK, GNK, NMM, SHIP. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I may add to dry bulk holdings at any time over the next 72 hours or less. I collaborate with James Catlin on a Marketplace service.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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