NCR: The Blackstone Opportunity Updated

Jul. 12, 2019 6:30 PM ETNCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) StockBX, VYX
Robert Honeywill
8.16K Followers

Summary

  • Blackstone was brought in by NCR in December 2015 as an experienced technology investor to add value to and accelerate NCR's strategic transformation to an integrated software & services company.
  • The recent acquisition of D3 Technology can be seen as a part of that ongoing strategy.
  • The NCR board's policies, to repurchase common stock shares, and not pay dividends to common stock shareholders, effectively allow Blackstone and other preferred stock holders to double dip.
  • Blackstone and ordinary shareholders who took advantage of the $350MM share repurchase in first quarter 2017 have done well. The company and remaining ordinary shareholders have not fared so well.
  • At some stage, Blackstone will likely exit the remainder of their position in NCR. This event may provide an opportunity for savvy common stock shareholders.

NCR: Investment Thesis Update

In my previous article on this subject, I wrote,

The Blackstone Arrangements So Far: Good For Blackstone And Exiting Common Stock Holders; Not So Much For The Company And Remaining Shareholders

The situation remains much the same today for common stock shareholders. The only way an investor can realize a return from an investment in shares is through receipt of dividends and/or gains on sales, regardless of company performance. There is very often a dichotomy between the perceived financial performance of a company and the returns achieved by shareholders. For NCR common stock shareholders, this dichotomy is exacerbated by the existence of preference shares and actions of management. The results of these have been detrimental to common stock shareholders and to the benefit of preference shareholders. This is discussed in more detail further below. Common stock shareholders are not receiving dividend income, and this is unlikely to change. Common stock share repurchases increase the percentage of the company attributable to preference shareholders and have not resulted in meaningful and sustained increases in common stock share prices. Meanwhile, preference shareholders are receiving dividends in the form of additional preference shares, at 5.5% per year. From Q1 2020, the company has the option to pay these dividends in cash. Blackstone (BX) managed an exit of 49% of their 100% ownership of preference shares in early 2017, at prices in excess of $48 per share. Coincidentally, at that time, the common stock share price climbed above $49 for a short period. This supported Blackstone's sale of 49% of the preference shares. That provided an opportunity for some common stock shareholders to exit with good profits, before the share price quickly sank back to the low $30s. Those who did not exit at that time have seen the share price continue to ratchet down to a low of $20.93, on December 26, 2018. Since that time, talk of

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This article was written by

8.16K Followers
I am a retired accountant with a background in large mining projects, from feasibility to full-scale operation, large scale primary industry and food processing, commercialisation of university intellectual property, and consulting to small businesses, government departments and insolvency practitioners. I have gained a wealth of experience from having the extreme good fortune to work, in a cooperative environment, with so many people far more intelligent and smarter than me; from scientists and engineers with MBA qualifications, to University professors across a range of disciplines. Through the accident of mergers, acquisitions and dispositions, I held, at various times, financial controller positions within Utah International Inc, General Electric Inc, and BHP Billiton organizations. If I have a special skill, it is in methods of assessment of projects with long lives, where costs are front loaded and/or future revenues are subject to considerable degrees of uncertainty. In relation to stocks, I have a theory, using projections to calculate a present value per share is far less useful for a share buying decision, than using those same projections for calculating future value per share for determining potential exit value and rate of return.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. I do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor and/or a tax advisor as to the suitability of such investments for their specific situation. Neither information nor any opinion expressed in this article constitutes a solicitation, an offer, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or dispose of any investment, or to provide any investment advice or service. An opinion in this article can change at any time without notice.

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