The Global Defense Industry - Here Are The Best To Buy

Aug. 26, 2019 11:34 PM ET, , , , , , , 26 Comments

Summary

  • To understand the global defense industry, we need to understand global defense budgeting.
  • We also need to understand “how” those dollars are spent - how much for research, personnel, operations, defensive and offensive armaments, etc.
  • Then we need to look at current geopolitical trends and do our best to project our equipment, armament and manpower needs into what is at best a murky future.
  • I will discuss what I believe are the best global aerospace and defense companies in light of the above.
  • I do much more than just articles at The Investor's Edge®: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Get started today »

The Macro View

The Congressional-Military-Industrial Complex is alive and flourishing. This applies not just to the USA but to nearly every other republican democracy.

If your nation is an autocracy or oligarchy or mercantilist combination of the two, you don’t need to feed your draftees well. You don’t need to provide them housing comparable to the standards outside the military. You may or may not offer them health care during their time of service (perhaps only enough to keep them working for the time of their enlistment). You may not even need to train them to the highest standards or equip them with the tools to best protect them in combat. (An example: the Chinese draftees in the Korean War, only some of whom were issued rifles. The rest were to pick up the rifles of the dead or dying and continue the assault. The Chinese soldiers were following Mao Zhedong's theory of "man over weapons.")

If, on the other hand, you live in Israel, Canada, the United States, the UK, Australia, France or any of the other democracies of the world where the population is thought of as individuals rather than masses or classes, you need to spend the money to ensure your people are the best trained they can be and have the tools to defend themselves as capably as is possible. Equipment costs, in other words, begin at a higher baseline when each human life is considered precious. Is it “worth” $25,000 an hour to have a fast-burner respond to a surrounded SOF team on the ground? If you are one of those team members or their family, it sure as hell is.

The second factor in making democracies with parliaments and such spend more than they would absent their congresses: the Congressional-Military-Industrial Complex, with the emphasis on “Congressional.”

Stovepipes are dangerous to your wealth.  If you buy only tech, only defense, only REITs, or only anything, it will add both volatility and risk.  At Investor's Edge® I create portfolios that include many asset classes so our clients and subscribers can sleep well at night.  To every thing there is a season.

This article was written by

26.09K Followers
Joseph Shaefer is a geopolitical, economic, and resource analyst. He is a retired military Flag Officer with deep experience in Special Operations and Intelligence. He is also a former university professor and a retired Senior V.P. at Charles Schwab & Co. He is today the leader of the investing group The Investor's Edge®. His approach to investing is both specific and universal. On one end of the "barbell" he makes especially deep dives into Energy, Resources, Aerospace and Defense, and Infrastructure. On the other end, a thorough research into the safest and best-paying income ETFs, CEFs, BDCs, and companies and their preferred shares. Unique features exclusively for subscribers at The Investors Edge® include the Growth & Value sample portfolio, early notification of articles likely to be discussed with the general Seeking Alpha audience, notification of purchases and sales prior to execution, and short notes and articles for subscribers on an as-it-happens basis. It also includes 5 decades of experience, 2 to 4 articles monthly exclusively for subscribers, and access to Joseph and his community in a chat corner that is reviewed daily.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long ESLT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
BAESY--
BAE Systems plc
EADSY--
Airbus SE
GD--
General Dynamics Corporation
LMT--
Lockheed Martin Corporation
NOC--
Northrop Grumman Corporation

Related Analysis