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Imagine you could heal genetic conditions by applying lotion to your skin, like sun-lotion to cool down the burn after a long day at the beach. Krystal Biotech (NASDAQ:KRYS) is making this possible, with interesting value catalysts for 2020 (KB-103 top-line Phase 2/3 data and KB-105 top-line Phase 2 data) while heading up towards a long-term $77 price target (currently $44). The valuation is based on Krystal's pipeline to clear rare skin diseases, focusing on the leading asset KB-103, which is sprinting for regulatory approval with efficient and durable effects. Below I will present the scientific and financial analysis in support of this thesis.
KB-103 is a safe minimalistic gene therapy, smartly designed to restore normal skin function
I believe that Krystal Biotech's (KRYS) proprietary topical gene therapy technology (STAR-D platform), which leverages high payload Herpes Simplex Virus 1 (HSV-1) to express genes in skin cells, is safe and efficient. There is already a regulatory precedent for HSV-1 vector usage, albeit as an oncolytic agent in cancer (Imlygic, Amgen (AMG)). The gene-expressing cassette carries the healthy human cDNA version of the mutated gene causing the disease, which through the production of functional proteins will help restore skin health.
KB-103 is being developed to treat Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB), a rare orphan skin disease, which results in large open wounds and blisters caused by defects in dermis-epidermis anchoring. KB-103 is a non-integrating, non-replicating Herpes Simplex Virus 1 vector (HSV-1) carrying a transgene that expresses COL7A1, an important collagen protein. This protein