Duluth Holdings: Down, But Not Out

Josh Arnold
24.79K Followers

Summary

  • Duluth has been hammered this year.
  • Direct sales and margin declines have been somewhat unexpected.
  • However, I think the long-term story still has a chance, and that the stock has moved too far down.

(Image source: Investor presentation)

Well, that was ugly. I’ve been bullish on work wear retailer Duluth Holdings (NASDAQ:DLTH) in the past, as I’ve been attracted to the company’s long runway for growth, but as you can see from the chart below, that hasn’t exactly worked out in 2019. Shares began the year near $24 and trade for just $9 today. If you’ve owned Duluth this year, it has no doubt been painful. However, the good news is that if you haven’t, it looks like Duluth could be worth a look at this low level.

Why Duluth?

I mentioned I’ve been bullish on Duluth before, but why? In short, the company offers a differentiated mix of high-end work wear that is positioned as the most durable and comfortable lineup available. To that end, Duluth’s clothing isn’t cheap, but it isn't trying to be everything to everyone. Duluth is betting that people that need durable clothing for their jobs and/or their leisure time - like farmers, construction workers, etc. - will pay more for comfort and durability. In addition, it has bet heavily on the women's category in recent quarters, which has produced strong growth. Up until this year, I’d say that has worked. Indeed, if we look below, we can see the immense growth the company has posted historically.

(Source: Investor presentation)

Sales growth of 25% is very difficult to come by in any industry, but in particular, for a retailer. Duluth had almost no stores a few years ago, but has made a concerted effort recently to introduce stores to new markets. The company has made it work, but it hasn’t translated to earnings growth in the same way due to the typical growing pains associated with a rapidly growing retailer.

SG&A costs have risen, as you’d expect, given that scaling a

This article was written by

24.79K Followers
Josh Arnold has been covering financial markets for a decade, utilizing a combination of technical and fundamental analysis to identify potential winners early on in their growth cycles. Josh's focus is mainly on growth stocks. His goal is efficient and profitable use of capital, which overly rigid buy-and-hold strategies do not allow. Josh is the leader of the investing group Timely Trader where he focuses on limiting risk and maximizing potential reward. Features of Timely Trader include: real-time alerts, a model portfolio, technical charts, sentiment indicators, and sector analysis to find the best trading opportunities. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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