Addus HomeCare Corp.: Buy, Brief Hold For Near Term Big CAGR

Peter F. Way, CFA
18.03K Followers

Summary

  • Preface: This article compares coming stock price expectations of well informed market professionals. No technological or industry competitive insights will be discussed, only insights on securities’ market price influences.
  • Buyer-seller negotiations over large-volume blocks of thousands of stocks each US market day produce market-maker forecasts of their likely coming price ranges, including these stocks.
  • We rank them all based on past price performance subsequent to prior forecasts with balances between upside-to-downside price change proportions like those seen this day.
  • Rankings consider odds for profitable buys, accomplishment credibility of reaching target prices, typical size of captured gains and interim price drawdowns encountered, and holding periods required. These all contribute.

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis of this article is that a most important reason for investing in any stock is its potential for portfolio wealth-building and that requires informed forecasts of its likely future price. Addus HomeCare Corp. (NASDAQ:ADUS) scores better than all other Healthcare stocks with odds-on near prior gain experiences. And it is competitive with the top 20 ranked Market-Maker near-price forecasts. Larger industry stocks are not.

Why Read This Report?

This is an analysis of how the prices of specific securities are likely to change in the next 3-4 months, based on the way major investment organizations ("institutional investors" or "big-$") have perceived those prospects and made multi-million-dollar trade changes of holdings in their multi-billion-dollar portfolios. That rationale is explained further in my SA blog's article "Why Read This Report?"

It is not a study of years-plus effects of economics, technology, politics, or competitive use of resources on earnings per share of securities. Such studies by others are embedded in the big-$ forecasts, prompting their volume-trade transaction orders. Analysis of such influences are covered as helpful background by other SA contributors.

This is a comparison of present-day opportunities for capital gain among many related alternative choices for wealth accumulation as seen by investors with the capital and human resources sufficient to cause such price changes.

Portfolio wealth-building not an interest? Then spend your reading time elsewhere.

The price-forecaster's foe is uncertainty. A too-big-to-die leader in another industry is being seriously challenged. How quickly it can adapt to operations approaching the potential of prior attraction for investors is at this point in time uncertain. But the haze likely will clear only over many coming months, and investment decisions need actions right now. Opportunities presented by changing prices present similar needs for attention right here.

We suggest that the

This article was written by

18.03K Followers
Peter Way Associates provides daily updated, near-term (3-month) price range forecasts for over 2,500 widely-held and actively-traded stocks, ETFs and market Indexes. Comprehensive results are available on the SA blog of my name.__These forecasts are derived from the way market professionals protect their own capital placed at risk while helping big-money portfolio managers adjust their holdings in multi-million-dollar "block" transactions.__ They cannot be found elsewhere.__Having these price-change prospects available on a continuous basis encourages individual investors to actively and economically build up the values of their own smaller portfolios. PWA only provides information for individual investors; it no longer manages investments for others.__Rates of portfolio capital growth being achieved by subscribers are at MULTIPLES of the growth in market averages, due to the efficient use of holding period time and the compounding of gains a number of times each year.__Risks of capital loss are protected against by insightful selection guidance and holding-period-limit disciplines. The advantages of good selection and careful timing amply cover a much smaller portion of unavoidable losses.__These Market-maker forecasts have several decades of demonstrated productivity. Earlier in the 20th century they were used by large institutional portfolios, and now in the 21st century they are available only to individual investor wealth-building portfolios. Thousands of day-by-day identifications of specific securities having consistent, odds-on profitable results rule out any likelihood of their exceptional outcomes being due to chance. Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 50+ years ago. Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments. He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in ADUS over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: Peter Way and generations of the Way Family are long-term providers of perspective information, earlier helping professional investors and now individual investors, discriminate between wealth-building opportunities in individual stocks and ETFs. We do not manage money for others outside of the family but do provide pro bono consulting for a limited number of not-for-profit organizations. We firmly believe investors need to maintain skin in their game by actively initiating commitment choices of capital and time investments in their personal portfolios. So, our information presents for D-I-Y investor guidance what the arguably best-informed professional investors are thinking. Their insights, revealed through their own self-protective hedging actions, tell what they believe is most likely to happen to the prices of specific issues in coming weeks and months. Evidences of how such prior forecasts have worked out are routinely provided in the SA blog of my name.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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