Timing That Chesapeake Energy Investment

Summary

  • Impairments reflection on past actions.
  • Exxon Mobil has long been an excellent contrary indicator.
  • The Chevron impairment may or may not reflect an industry problem.
  • Most likely the Chevron announcement begins a rationalization of supply with demand to strengthen future pricing.
  • The whole picture still appears to be good news for Chesapeake Energy.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Oil & Gas Value Research. Get started today »

Leveraged companies like Chesapeake Energy (CHK) demand superb timing. Oftentimes companies like this cannot withstand a delay in pricing recovery. Hence, the usual risk in speculative investments of a financially leveraged company is a lack of that necessary timing. Oftentimes, confirmation of possible timing of favorable events can be found elsewhere.

Exxon Mobil Mentions

Probably the largest vote of confidence by far is all the articles that include a mention about Exxon Mobil (XOM) borrowing to pay the dividend. Exxon Mobil has a very long history of doing things in countercyclical fashion.

For example, back in the 1980s after oil hit $10 per barrel and looked like it would stay there forever, Exxon Mobil began steadily ratcheting up activity levels. The company was one of the first to raise its dividend back then and split its stock. It also was superbly placed when oil headed toward $100 barrel. At that point, Exxon Mobil gradually cut back to the point where many writers complained about the lack of capital appreciation over the last decade.

Now all of a sudden the Mr. Market is worried about borrowing to support the dividend. Personally, I think that Exxon Mobil has its timing just right to snap up bargain properties one more time. No less than John Templeton invested in Exxon Mobil as he stated in a "Wall Street Week Interview" at the beginning of this for a fat dividend of nearly 10% of the time back in the 1980s. That dividend was subsequently increased to the surprise of Wall Street. He held for a huge gain not including the dividends. This time, the countercyclical activity increase will probably repeat the prior success story.

Chevron News

Chevron (CVX) is finally going to bite the bullet. Nothing is more irrelevant to current

I analyze oil and gas companies like Chesapeake Energy and related companies in my service, Oil & Gas Value Research, where I look for undervalued names in the oil and gas space. I break down everything you need to know about these companies -- the balance sheet, competitive position and development prospects. This article is an example of what I do. But for Oil & Gas Value Research members, they get it first and they get analysis on some companies that is not published on the free site. Interested? Sign up here for a free two-week trial.

This article was written by

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Long Player believes oil and gas is a boom-bust, cyclical industry. It takes patience, and it certainly helps to have experience. He has been focusing on this industry for years. He is a retired CPA, and holds an MBA and MA.

He leads the investing group Oil & Gas Value Research. He looks for under-followed oil companies and out-of-favor midstream companies that offer compelling opportunities. The group includes an active chat room in which Oil & Gas investors discuss recent information and share ideas. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long CHK. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am not an investment advisor, and this article is not meant to be a recommendation of the purchase or sale of stock. Investors are advised to review all company documents and press releases to see if the company fits their own investment qualifications.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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