Revisiting Pinnacle West, Still A Buy

Summary

  • Pinnacle West Capital Corporation continues to be a quality dividend stock with a 3.2% forward dividend yield.
  • Despite its recent run-up in price, there is still space for price appreciation.
  • The announcement that its primary subsidiary, Arizona Public Service, will eliminate carbon emissions by 2050 should be viewed as a positive for the stock.
  • The shift away from fossil fuel generation to renewable energy will offer positive economic benefits for regulated electric utilities.

I've previously written about Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE:PNW) as a quality, pure-play electric utility. PNW is a holding company that has a single primary asset: Arizona Public Service Corporation (APS). While there are some other subsidiaries, they are not functionally material. Since my November 19 article, the stock is up 13.5%, which compares favorably to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU) at 3.6% and 10.6% returns (including the fact that both SPY and XLU have paid dividends) respectively. I believe that its positive fundamentals should help it to outperform the broader market in the near term. However, there is an immediate question as to whether PNW is still a good investment given this recent price appreciation. For income seekers, one can consider that it still offers an attractive forward dividend yield as noted in the below exhibit:

Source: Yahoo Finance, Author Calculations and estimates for forward dividends

Despite Moody's Concerns, Recent Clean Energy Announcement is a Positive Development

PNW's recent announcement that it would achieve 100% clean energy by 2050 resulted in a shift in Moody's outlook. Moody's raised a concern that this target would negatively impact cash flow and increase near-term leverage. While affirming its current credit rating, it shifted its outlook to negative. While the stock posted a small decline that day, PNW resumed its upward climb the next day. PNW's announcement is hardly revolutionary, and furthermore, given Arizona's significant solar resources, an eventual shift to clean energy would be expected. To me, Moody's concerns seem almost irrelevant, and I'll discuss that later. Shifting to 100% clean energy over the next 30 years is not a big challenge. The entire state of Hawaii has mandated a shift to 100% renewables by 2045. Furthermore, the state of New York

This article was written by

The author is semi-retired having had a successful career spanning a range of professional services from venture capital/private equity to consulting to investment banking. As an undergraduate, he received a bachelors of arts in mathematics and a bachelors of science in mechanical engineering. He later completed an MBA.Any article created here is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained within an article, comment, or posting shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long PNW. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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