Coherus BioSciences Offers Compelling Long-Term Gain Opportunities With Low Risk

Summary

  • CHRS trades at only 2.5X annualized revenues of $500MM and ~5 times annualized EBITDA of $200MM with only 1 of 5 products commercialized.
  • The only CHRS product on the market is on "pass-through" status through 3/31/2022 which should allow CHRS to maintain 20%+ market share, and hence revenues, until at least then.
  • CHRS offers multiple pathways to triple revenues within 5 years with considerable operating and financial leverage.
  • CHRS should be at commercial scale in 4 years in three compelling markets offering immense operating leverage (once at scale most of gross margin will flow to CHRS's bottom line).
  • With 1 product on the market ($500MM annualized sales) and 4 in various stages of commercialization the risk to valuation, should 1 product not be commercialized, is mitigated.

Coherus BioSciences (ticker “CHRS”) is undervalued by a factor of more than 3X versus its nearest like peer/comparable Momenta Pharmaceuticals (ticker "MNTA"). Furthermore CHRS is already quite profitable (trading at 2.5X annualized revenues and ~6X annualized EBITDA) where MNTA is still losing hundreds of millions/year (NOTE: the author did not otherwise review MNTA in any detail outside of cursory valuation metrics). Most important, CHRS offers compelling short and long-term revenue gain opportunities over the next 1 to 4 years and, at its current valuation, minimal downside risk. This is primarily because its first biosimilar product is such a success, and should continue to be a success for another 2 years, it practically insures investors should CHRS's second product disappoint (again of four more biosimilar products slated to hit the market in the next 5 years).

CHRS is a commercial biotechnology company focused on the emerging biosimilar industry. A biosimilar is essentially a copy of an existing biologics therapy or drug. A biologics biosimilar is like a traditional “generic” drug (only in layman terms). A generic drug is identical to a branded drug (the “ingredients” and formulation((s)) are identical). Because biosimilars are technically "biologics" the raw materials, molecules and manufacturing processes are much more complex. For a biosimilar to be approved, the manufacturer does not need to show the FDA that the ultimate product will be “identical” but “biosimilar.” The most common example provided is when a biosimilar uses human cell lines… cell lines will never be identical (like DNA is never identical)… but the ultimate biologics profile will be "similar" enough to produce virtually identical clinical outcome((s)).

CHRS is located in Redwood City California, was founded in 2010 primarily by former employees of Amgen and went IPO in 2014. CHRS, like any biosimilar company can either develop and sell their own biosimilar biologics

This article was written by

Boston area biotechnology professionals with a collective 100+ years experience in the biotech industry. We are not professional analysts and lack the resources of professional analysts. Our articles will include information that is forward looking. You should never rely on forward-looking statements because facts & circumstances can change dramatically and without notice. In plain English do not take us so seriously.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long CHRS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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