I view there as being three possible outcomes for the current coronavirus pandemic for the US. The first is that the pandemic overwhelms our healthcare system and shuts down our economy for at least the next six months. I hope this worst case scenario does not occur, but it cannot be dismissed. In my opinion, the early decision of President Trump to limit travel from China was vital in preventing the worse case scenario from unfolding. The second is that social distancing and isolation are effective in "flattening the curve", thereby limiting excessive demands on our healthcare system to a few areas, and the economy begins to recover this summer. The third is that the investigational drugs prove effective in combatting the virus. This would give investors confidence in a business resumption, resulting in a stock market rally. Regardless of which of these sequences unfolds, there will be more harm to the economy.
I have chosen to invest a portion of my portfolio in stocks that should perform well as the pandemic worsens. Regarding pharmacotherapy, I have purchased Gilead (GILD), which is testing remdesivir, Regeneron (REGN), which is testing Kevzara, is also working on an antibody-based therapeutic, and separately is benefitting from side effect issues associated with a Novartis (NVS) drug competing with Eylea, and Hepion (OTC:HEPA), a microcap stock I have previously recommended for its drug CRV431, which is in Phase 1 clinical study for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis ("Nash"). It appears that this drug, a cyclophillin inhibitor, may have efficacy in pulmonary fibrosis and in blocking coronavirus replication. In fact, in a 2018 article in Virology, the authors stated that cyclophillin inhibitors can block coronavirus replication in cell culture. In 2020 article in Antiviral Research, authors commented that cyclosporine A
