Trading Near Valuation Lows, Sonoco Products Is A Buy

Patrick Doyle
7.29K Followers

Summary

  • I think the drop in share price here has been overdone, and there's great value here.
  • Whenever the shares have fallen to current valuations in the past, they've gone on to do well.
  • The options market gives short put sellers the opportunity to acquire shares at prices last seen in mid-2009 when the world was still quite scary.

The first few months of this year have so far been unkind to shareholders of Sonoco Products Co. (NYSE:SON), with the stock down over 31% since January 1st. I thought I'd look in on this name to determine whether it was a good buy at these prices, or whether it's possible to make money in the options market here. I'll try to answer that question by looking at the financial history here, paying particular attention to the capital structure and the debt repayment schedule. I'll look at the stock as a thing distinct from the underlying business, and I'll recommend a specific short options trade. For those who have little interest in wading through the remainder of my article, I'll jump to the point. I think shares of Sonoco are closer to the bottom than the top, and I would be willing to take a small position in this company at current levels. Additionally, I think there's a very profitable options trade here.

Financial Snapshot

While nothing's perfect, I generally like the financial performance at Sonoco over the past five years. In particular, both revenue and net income have grown nicely in that time, and net income growth has outstripped revenue growth, suggesting that the company has been getting more efficient over time. In particular, revenue has grown at a CAGR of about 1.6%, and net income is up at a CAGR of about 3.2% over the same time period.

Management has proven themselves to be very shareholder-friendly, in that they've returned just over $914 million to owners since 2015. Only about $145 million of this came in the form of stock buybacks, and the balance came in the form of ever-growing dividend payments. I am starting to believe that dividends are a superior form of return of profits to shareholders, so I like the ratio of

This article was written by

7.29K Followers
I'm a quant investment newsletter writer who marries fundamental analysis with the latest research in momentum. Over the past few years, I’ve developed a piece of software that helps me track the level of optimism and pessimism embedded in stock price. I seek to challenge the assumptions embedded in price by profitably exploiting the disconnect between what the market thinks and what is a likely outcome. I invest in those companies that have a greater than average chance of giving us all a surprise in the next few months.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SON over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

In addition to buying the shares, I'm going to sell 10 of the puts mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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