The Trend Is Your Friend: A Rules-Based Sector Momentum Strategy For Any Market Environment (Podcast)

Lets Talk ETFs
7.07K Followers

Summary

  • What if investors could capture the full upside of equity returns - but with less volatility and smaller drawdowns along the way?
  • After 20 years working in all parts of the asset management business, Armor Index ETFs founder Jim Colquitt hit on an approach that he feels does just this.
  • Listing on February 11 of this year, his firm's Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR) attempts to algorithmically game the system through sector rotation.
  • While the back-tested results have been phenomenal, can the fund hold up in the current brutal market environment?
  • Jim joins Let's Talk ETFs to weigh in on current markets and explain how ARMR should insulate investors from the worst of the bearish action.

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By Jonathan Liss

Armor Index ETFs founder and President Jim Colquitt couldn't have planned the timing of his firm's first ETF launch any better if he had had a crystal ball. Commencing trading on February 11 of this year - just one week before U.S. markets made all-time highs - the Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR) has become available to investors at what seems like the perfect time.

Having spent 20 years working as a jack-of-all-trades in the asset management space - including for some of the largest firms in the U.S. by AUM, Jim decided a few years back that he wanted to pursue his dream of running his own unique fund strategies. Drawn to the "math-ier" side of investing from early on, he devised a strategy to capture the U.S. equity market's long-term returns but with significantly less volatility and smaller drawdowns during market sell-offs - like the COVID-19-induced one we're currently in.

The result was the Armor US Equity Index and accompanying ETF (ARMR). The fund holds the sectors of the US equity market - via sector-focused ETFs - that the underlying momentum-driven algorithm deems most likely to generate positive returns, omitting any sectors that don't make the cut. The process is repeated monthly, with a full re-allocation taking place - including out of stocks entirely and into Treasuries (as is the current case).

As Jim puts it, "I have always believed that the key to long-term investing success is avoiding the big losses most investors experience throughout their lifetimes." The index underlying ARMR has more than 20 years of back-tests showing how the strategy has worked throughout several market cycles. March 2020 - the first full month the fund traded - was no exception with significant outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500. And while only time will tell whether this strategy is able to live up to its promise of full equity returns with less risk, ARMR is certainly off to an auspicious start.

Show Notes

  • 2:45 - Jim Colquitt's Background: Why he got into investing and how he ended up where he is today.
  • 7:15 - Why Jim struck out on his own and founded Armor.
  • 10:45 - Assessment of the market's reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • 17:15 - Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR): What is the fund's overarching strategy and how does it achieve this?
  • 22:30 - Cases where ARMR isn't invested in equities at all (IEF).
  • 28:15 - Which is more important, avoiding losses or not missing gains?
  • 33:30 - Is a once a month re-allocation sufficient in highly volatile markets like the current one?
  • 35:30 - Does the monthly trading lead to unwanted tax consequences?
  • 37:15 - Which family of sector ETFs does ARMR use for exposure to the 11 GICS sectors?
  • 41:00 - Is ARMR meant to be a core portfolio holding, or a satellite way of increasing alpha?

This article was written by

7.07K Followers
Let’s Talk ETFs is Seeking Alpha's podcast dedicated to the exchange traded fund space. Hosted by Seeking Alpha’s ETF expert, Jonathan Liss, the podcast features long-form conversations with industry insiders, ETF issuers, asset managers and investment advisers to explore the ways in which ETFs continue to evolve, helping investors to reach their financial goals.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given that any particular security, portfolio, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The author is not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security or other matter. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. The author is an employee of Seeking Alpha. Any views or opinions expressed herein may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

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