Many investors think the market is acting a bit crazy right now.
Last week we saw the S&P 500 soar 12% in four days, the 8th best week in market history.
(Source: Ycharts)
Since bottoming (so far) on March 23 (at -35% from the peak, intra-day) the broader market surged 25% in a matter of two weeks.
During periods of high uncertainty, investors are often balanced on the knife-edge between fear and fear of missing out. That's what causes both panic selling and panic buying.
Earnings expectations have fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, as one would expect when about 30% of the US economy (according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics) has shutdown.
Since the start of the year, the 2020 consensus EPS forecast has fallen by about 18% and individual analyst estimates for earnings this year range from about -35% to -15%.
The economic news coming in each week is likely to steadily get worse.
(Source: MarketWatch)
Retail sales last month fell by 8.7%, almost three times the previous record set back in November 2008.
(Source: MarketWatch)
New unemployment claims have reached such proportions as to boggle the imagination, 17 million in three weeks.
The Empire State Index, which measures North East manufacturing, fell a record 57 points last month.
(Source: Ycharts)
Manufacturing has never been in worse shape. Severely depressed demand, supply disruptions, and extremely high uncertainty will keep manufacturing on an extremely weak trajectory in the near term.” -Oren Klachkin, Oxford Economics
The blue chip economist consensus, consisting of the 16 most accurate economists, keeps getting worst each week.
(Source: MarketWatch)
The Q2 contraction is already expected to be more than double the 1958 single-quarter record of -10%. And while Q3's bounce back is expected to be strong, we're still expected
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