Areas Of The CEF Market To Focus On, And Possibly Areas To Avoid

Apr. 23, 2020 8:15 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , 40 Comments

Summary

  • Some areas of the bond market are receiving Fed support. Others are not, but may in the future.
  • It can pay to know which areas have implicit Fed support through credit facilities and bond buying programs.
  • The areas that are not supported could see significant upside should the Fed step into those markets.
  • I do much more than just articles at Yield Hunting: Alt Inc Opps: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Get started today »

(This report was issued to members of Yield Hunting on April 15. All data herein is from that date or earlier.)

Closed-end funds have been hammered. Most entered this crisis at significantly above average levels in terms of valuation. When we talk about valuation, we are referring to the price compared to the net asset value ("NAV"), or the true value of the fund. In other words, the discount or premium at which the fund is trading.

The prices of CEFs have been extremely volatile in the last month. Even worse has been the drop in NAVs. Bonds are supposed to be your defense positions, and even CEFs that incorporate leverage shouldn't be seeing the kinds of declines that they have experienced in the last month. Some areas of the muni market are down 15%.

What's Happening?

The chart below from RiverNorth shows the valuation change over the last 3 months. It shows just the taxable bond CEF aggregate discounts as of December 31, 2019, and as of April 1, 2020. While we weren't extremely overvalued prior to this crisis, we were on the downside of the bell curve "mountain" and very close to NAV or "par".

Fast-forward 3 months and we were "in the tail" very close to the widest discounts of the last 24 years. The change in the discount means that your price fell by almost 10% more than the NAV. From that perspective alone, the average taxable bond CEF lost almost 10% of its value before even factoring in any drop in the NAV. And of course, NAVs fell significantly. We have since recovered a portion of that loss, as per our weekly discount chart:

Why Did NAVs Fall Significantly?

Volatility over the last month has picked up significantly. And over the last 10 trading days of

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This article was written by

17.24K Followers

Alpha Gen Capital is a former financial advisor and his analysis is meant to provide a relatively safer income stream with CEFs and mutual funds. He has been writing about investing on Seeking Alpha for the past decade and he aims to help investors better understand how to properly construct a portfolio.

Alpha Gen Capital leads the Investing Group Yield Hunting: Alt Inc Opps, where along with his team of analysts, he focuses on closed-end funds and getting yield from bonds to complement dividend portfolios. The service is dedicated to income investors who are searching for yield without the high risk of the equity market. Additionally, they provide 4 actively managed portfolios.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long DMO, DBL, NRZ.PC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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