Ryanair: Why The Low-Cost Airline Will Emerge As A Survivor

Accountalyst
27 Followers

Summary

  • Despite the overwhelming effect the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the airline industry, Ryanair is still well positioned to survive the lockdown.
  • Strong cash reserves and stringent cost saving measures will help it maintain short-term liquidity.
  • Fuel hedge losses are substantial - but likely to be in line with hedge losses across the sector.
  • Social distancing measures on aircraft may slowthe speed at which Ryanair can recover once lockdown restrictions are lifted.
  • Ryanair may be able to capitalise on the failure of smaller airlines that fail as a result of COVID-19 restrictions.

The airline industry has been badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the majority of airlines cutting flights by around 90% compared to the same period in 2019. Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY) itself currently operates less than 20 daily flights, which represents a 99% decline from its pre-COVID-19 flight schedule of 2,500 daily flights. This has had an unprecedented effect on Q1 2020 profit figures, with heavy losses expected across the sector. However, Ryanair has several features that distinguish its current position from other airlines - which will also help it to make a recovery after COVID-19.

Balance Sheet

A significant advantage that Ryanair has over its competitors is the strength of its balance sheet. As of the 3rd April, Ryanair had cash and cash equivalents of €3.8bn which provides a significant buffer to absorb costs throughout the period that it is unable to generate revenue. This compares rather favorably to the Cash & Cash Equivalents position at other airlines: such as EasyJet with £1.6bn (Sept 2019), Virgin Atlantic with £392m (Dec 2018) and IAG €7bn (April 2020). Note that despite IAG's larger cash balance - this has to support British Airways, Iberia and the smaller Aer Lingus, Level and Vueling brands. However, the cash position only tells some of the story, as the extent to which cash outflow is managed also plays a vital part in estimating the likelihood of survival of an airline.

Unlike most of its competitors, Ryanair owns 77% of its aircraft fleet, which significantly reduces the cash outflow compared to if they were leased under operating leases. Operating leases are extremely unlikely to be cancelled/deferred as a result of the pandemic, and therefore airlines that finance their aircraft with operating leases are going to be suffering a severe cash drain each month their planes are unable to fly. When this is compared to

This article was written by

27 Followers
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About RYAAY Stock

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
PE
Yield
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on RYAAY

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
RYAAY
--