When asked about what's going on in markets during today's Daily Briefing, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal put it simply: "There's nothing going on," he said.
Pal said that overall, markets are holding steady. Some things have moved, like gold mining shares (up 34% YTD), banks (down 35% YTD), and energy (down 39% YTD).
"A simple 'sell oil, buy gold' yields you 70% returns this year," Pal said. "It's a weird world where nothing's going anywhere but everything's going somewhere. I've never seen anything like this. Gold miners are the only action in town for the time being."
Pal discussed the source of the stasis, which he argued must have something to do with central banks suppressing volatility. He said there's no other explanation for the flatness we're seeing, and there must be some sort of offsetting function that has effectively stopped everything.
"I don't understand why things have stopped moving," he said. "It feels like we're going to get big moves, but which way? We'll find out."
Pal also discussed how traders and investors can build a macro framework and size position for investing. He said it is about matching your idea horizon to your trade time horizon and that people tend to look at bets in isolated terms when they should be looking at their whole portfolio.
For example, Pal said that people will decide to short the S&P one week based on a long-term pessimistic view, but a big picture view based on long-term economic data is not the key influencer of the week in the S&P. It is potentially the key influence over the next six months, but you're only taking a view on what the S&P will do during that particular week. Considering time horizon helps people understand what they're doing, the risk and rewards of their positions, and how to think
