Investing For The Long Run: Navigating A Bifurcated Market

Aug. 14, 2020 6:30 AM ET, , , , , , , , , 43 Comments
Jeff Miller
37.83K Followers

Summary

  • Current market moves may trap the long-term investor.
  • The Great Reset Matrix is a helpful tool for keeping eyes on the future.
  • Many of those recommending stock ideas focus on what is working now - so watch out!
  • The election is in the news, but is not very relevant for your investment decisions.
  • Patience will be rewarded.

I have separated my long-running Investor section from Weighing the Week Ahead. My hope is to highlight ideas for the long-term investor. In my last investment post I applied the key concepts of the matrix to a range of investment ideas. We have been on target so far with what to avoid, and I expect the approach to guide us to the best long-term investments.

For now, and for as long as the pandemic weighs on the market, that is the necessary context for each stock idea. To provide a starting point, I created The Great Reset Matrix. The Matrix is a conceptual guide, which I use in evaluating every new stock idea. The current version draws upon results from the Great Reset Project, where readers have joined in to help with my Wisdom of Crowds approach. The results may seem like common sense. Good! Comments from industry experts and analysts are often quite different. This is one way we will find an edge. You can see past research or become a part of the project by signing up for a free membership. I will continue to disseminate results in posts like this one, and you can help.

The current matrix version looks at sectors, not individual stocks. Many sectors are not yet listed. You may disagree with the placement of others. If so, the matrix is doing its job – encouraging us to think about what is most important.

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This Week’s Ideas

Each idea I include comes from a respected source that I have often cited in the past. In each case I offer a comment about how I might use the stock in client portfolios. I also assign a matrix classification. Comments are most welcome. Please join me in a discussion of the classification as well as contributing other ideas. I hope that

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This article was written by

37.83K Followers
Seeking Alpha mourns the passing of Jeff Miller, on May 7, 2021. During his time at Seeking Alpha, Jeff attracted a following of close to 40,000 readers and published more than 1,500 articles. He was a portfolio manager at Incline Investment Advisors, LLC. Jeff also was President of NewArc Investments, Inc., and served as a university professor.....................................................................................................................................Jeff is Portfolio Manager for Incline Investment Advisors, LLC.,manager of both individual and institutional investments. A registered investment advisor, he was formerly President of NewArc Investments, Inc. Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for a trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc. Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client. Jeff also serves on the board of a small technology company. He occasionally serves as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long MSFT, PRU. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

PRU versus short calls

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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