Finding Decent Equity Yields In A Zero-Rate World

Aug. 24, 2020 2:56 PM ETADM, MDC, STC2 Comments
Marc Gerstein
6.57K Followers

Summary

  • If you want or need investment/saving income, we’re still in the worst of times.
  • Investing smarts can’t cancel this, but there’s a lot you can do to make the best of it.
  • Using a 20-factor fundamental-technical model, supplemented with extra emphasis on sentiment and technicals, I found three good-yielding stocks that are benefiting from a market tailwind.

For those who supply capital, the interest-rate nightmare continues and shows little sign of abating any time soon. These are great times if you’re borrowing, but it you want or need seeking investment/saving income, may be as bad as it gets. The only thing worse would be dividend reductions: Oh wait, given continuing uncertainties on the economic front (COVID-19, an aging business cycle, brass-knuckle politics), that, too, is an ongoing concern. Investing smarts can’t cancel this, but there’s a lot you can do to make the best of it.

© Can Stock Photo / koya979

Step One — Manage Expectations

As one who started in security analysis when the bank prime rate was around 20% and even rates in that range weren’t good enough to induce savers to buy CDs (banks also gave free gifts such as toasters or even color TVs), I never thought I’d see the day when I’d have to say, as I do now, that if you can get a dividend yield north of 2%, that’s pretty good and above 3% is excellent. Sure there are stocks yielding around 10%, or more, but that’s only on paper and based on historic payments. The stocks are priced low (which causes the yields to look high) because the market expects those companies to reduce or eliminate dividends, and in this area, Mr. Market turns out to be right very often.

Step Two — Remember Why You’re Looking At Income Stocks As Opposed (Or In Addition) To Fixed Income

You absolutely can find higher yields in fixed income. Some of it is in high yield (junk) where credit risk is a problem. But even for good quality choices, fixed in come is, well, fixed. That means that if interest rates rise in the future, or even if investors start to anticipate future rate increases (maybe not tomorrow but with

This article was written by

6.57K Followers
After 43+ years working for one investment research company or another, I finally retired. So now, I’m completely independent. And for the first time on Seeking Alpha, I won’t be working based on anybody else’s product agenda. I have only one goal now… to give you the best actionable investment insights I can.I have long specialized in rules/factor-based equity investing strategies. But I’m different from others who share such backgrounds. I don’t serve the numbers. Instead, the numbers serve me… to inspire HI (Human Intelligence) generated investment stories. I definitely understand quant investing, including factors and what not (AI before it was called AI). But I don't agree with what other quants do. Rather than be obsessed with statistical studies that are no good for any time periods other than the ones studied, I combine factor work with the underlying theories of finance including classic fundamental analysis to get the true story of a company and its stock. Investing is about the future. So numbers (which necessarily live in the past) can take us just so far. They’re at their best when they cue us into stories that shed light on what’s likely to happen in the future. And that’s how I use them,I’ve had a pretty colorful career. Besides a full range of experience covering stocks from lots of different groups (large cap, small cap, micro cap, value, growth, income, special situations … you name it, I covered it) I’ve developed and worked with many different quant models. In addition, I formerly managed a high-yield fixed-income (“junk bond”) fund and conducted research involving quantitative asset allocation strategies such as are at the foundation of what today has come to be known as Robo Advising. I formerly edited and or wrote several stock newsletters, the most noteworthy having been the Forbes Low Priced Stock Report. I previously served as an assistant research director at Value Line.I also have long had a passion for investor education, which has resulted in my having conducted numerous seminars on stock selection and analysis, and the authoring of two books: Screening The Market and The Value Connection.I’m looking forward to my new incarnation on Seeking Alpha. I hope you enjoy what I offer. But if you don’t, feel free to tell me why in the comment sections. I’m a big boy. I can handle criticism. (But please don’t call me “stupid.” That’s my wife’s job!)

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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