Dynex Capital's Historical Value Creation May Offer Insights Into Its Future Returns

Aug. 25, 2020 1:54 PM ETDynex Capital, Inc. (DX) StockDX8 Comments
Xinyun Hang
505 Followers

Summary

  • Dynex Capital is an REIT that invests in mortgage-backed securities.
  • REITs generate value for investors by increasing their book value per share and by paying dividends.
  • By adding Dynex's annual change in book value per share to its dividends, we can calculate how much value the company has historically created for shareholders.
  • This gives us insight into Dynex's potential future returns.

Dynex Capital, Inc. (NYSE:DX) is a mortgage real estate investment trust, or mREIT. The company invests in mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, securities whose income is based on the performance of pools of mortgages. Those securities include both residential mortgage backed securities, or RMBS, backed by residential mortgages, as well as commercial mortgage backed securities, or CMBS, backed by commercial mortgages. As of the end of June 2020, 97% of Dynex's MBS investments were protected from principal loss by Fannie Mae (FDDXD) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC).

I've written two recent articles about mREITs Ladder Capital (LADR) and Anworth Mortgage (ANH). Both those articles were written because those mREITs look cheap. The companies trade at steep discounts to their book values and have high dividend yields.

Dynex Capital does not look cheap. The company trades at a price to book ratio of 94%. In contrast, Anworth and Ladder have, respectively, P/B ratios a little over 60%. This means each dollar of their stock buys far more of the book value, or equity, of those companies. Those companies also have double digit dividend yields compared to Dynex's yield of around 8%.

That said, as in life, in investing you often get what you pay for. In several recent articles, I've described two common types of investment opportunities:

  1. High quality companies trading at a modest discount to intrinsic value.
  2. More average companies trading at a much larger discount to intrinsic value.

Average companies trading at a large discount often offer the highest immediate returns. After all, a company trading at a small fraction of its intrinsic value can double, triple, or more an investor's money in the short run. All that is necessary is for whatever is causing the undervaluation to end and for valuations to return to normal. This often takes only a couple of years.

This article was written by

505 Followers
My name is Xinyun Hang, though I go by Charles Hang. I'm a value investor who focuses on companies with high free cash flow yields, especially those that are trading at a low EV/FCF (enterprise value to free cash flow) ratio. I live in St. Louis, Missouri, where I am employed as a data quality engineer and study engineering as a graduate student.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The content here is not meant as investment advice. Do not rely on it in making an investment decision. Do your own research. The content here reflects only the author's opinions. Those opinions might be wrong. This content is meant solely for the entertainment of the reader and its author.

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