Why Silicon Motion Technology Could Be A Long Despite Near-Term Headwinds

MarketGyrations
3.15K Followers

Summary

  • SIMO posted double-digit growth in revenue and earnings, but the outlook paints a mixed picture.
  • SIMO expects growth to slow down in Q3 for several reasons, although a recovery could come as soon as Q4.
  • SIMO's revenue and earnings peaked in 2016 and have been going sideways since then along with the company's stock.
  • SIMO is approaching the lower-end of the range it has been stuck in for years, which offers a potential entry point for those thinking of going long.

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (NASDAQ:SIMO) cruised by Q2 earnings estimates. But despite growing revenue and EPS by double digits, the stock has added to its losses for the year and is now down by over 25% YTD. The stock fell after the company reported in its outlook that revenue is expected to decline in Q3. But there is reason to think SIMO is still worth going long despite the recent fall. Why will be covered in greater detail next.

Q2 2020 quarterly earnings

Q2 revenue grew by 45% YoY to $136.8M. Non-GAAP operating income and EPS jumped by 75.7% and 55.8% to $30.4M and $0.81 respectively. Note that in the second quarter of 2019, SIMO posted a $12.9M gain on the disposal of long-term investments, which affects the YoY comparisons for EPS in terms of GAAP.

(GAAP)

Q2 2020

Q1 2020

Q2 2019

QoQ

YoY

Revenue

$136.8M

$132.8M

$98.8M

3.0%

38.4%

Gross margin

50.0%

48.1%

46.7%

-

-

Operating income

$30.1M

$24.1M

$12.3M

24.9%

144.7%

EPS

$0.80

$0.74

$0.75

8.1%

6.7%

(Non-GAAP)

Revenue

$136.8M

$132.8M

$94.3M

3.0%

45.1%

Gross margin

50.0%

48.2%

51.5%

-

-

Operating income

$30.4M

$26.6M

$17.3M

14.3%

75.7%

EPS

$0.81

$0.80

$0.52

1.0%

55.8%

Source: Silicon Motion Technology Form 6-K

(GAAP)

Q3 2019

Q3 2020 (guidance)

YoY

Revenue

$110.5M

$112-120M

4.98%

Gross margin

49.6%

47.9-49.9%

-

CY2019

CY2020

Revenue

$457.3M

$508-521M

12.51%

Gross margin

48.6%

47.5-49.5%

-

(Non-GAAP)

Q3 2019

Q3 2020 (guidance)

Revenue

$113.2M

$112-120M

2.47%

Gross margin

39.8%

48.0-50.0%

-

CY2019

CY2020

Revenue

$449.4M

$508-521M

14.49%

Gross margin

50.1%

47.5-49.5%

-

The outlook was somewhat of a mixed bag. The forecast calls for Q3 revenue of $112-120M, an increase of 2.47% YoY at the midpoint. Not only is growth much lower than the previous quarter, but it's also a decline of 15.2% in

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Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SIMO over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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