Pat yourself on the back. You and I (by that I mean the SA community) can accurately predict future stock returns and earnings surprises.
Surely you jest, Chuck!
No. I speak the truth.
A 2014 study, conducted by researchers from Purdue University, the Georgia Institute of Technology, and the City University of Hong Kong, analyzed approximately 100,000 Seeking Alpha articles as well as extensive commentary published between 2005 and 2012. The study concluded articles, coupled with accompanying commentary, accurately predicted returns for periods ranging from one month to three years.
With that in mind, one would assume a degree of uniformity would prevail among authors. In fact, when one peruses the analysis sections of differing tickers, it is common to note a fairly limited range of authors' opinions on a given stock as well as a majority of authors with similar ratings for a company.
Not so when viewing the theses for Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (NYSE:SKT). The last 10 Tanger articles provide two Very Bearish ratings, three Bearish ratings, one Neutral rating, three Bullish ratings, and one Very Bullish rating.
I would argue a crowd-sourced prediction requires a consensus opinion.
I'll also readily admit that I struggled mightily determining how I would rate Tanger. As I gathered and grappled with the data, I found myself leaning first to a sell opinion, then changing my assessment of the stock to a buy. I confess to several iterations before arriving at a final decision.
For example: On one hand, its portfolio is spread across 510 different brand-name companies. Furthermore, the firm has a fairly broad geographical reach, ameliorating the risk associated with properties centered in one locale.
On the other hand, a large percentage of Tanger's clients are apparel-based retailers, and those rank among the businesses hit the hardest by e-commerce competition. Additionally, the pandemic
