Vipshop: Unwarranted Selloff Creates Buying Opportunity And Our New Price Target

JG Investment Research
5.22K Followers

Summary

  • Takeaways from Vipshop's Q2 earnings report.
  • Why shares fell and why investors are missing the big picture.
  • Vipshop is undervalued and why we see a 50% upside.
  • We raise our price target to $25.

With the stock market dropping last week and with the tech-heavy NASDAQ entering a correction, shares of Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS) haven't fared any better as the company has seen its share price drop by more than 30% since reporting mixed second quarter earnings last month.

The company reported Q2 revenues of $3.41 billion, up 6.0% year-over-year, which was pretty much in-line with analyst estimates. On the bottom line, the company reported earnings per share of $0.27, barely missing Wall Street estimates of $0.28.

Below is a look at how Vipshop has performed over the past four quarters.

Vipshop Earnings History Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019
Revenues $3.41B $2.7B $4.21B $2.74B
Analyst Estimates $3.4B $2.57B $4.01B $2.65B
Difference +0.3% +5.1% +4.9% +3.4%
Earnings Per Share $0.27 $0.20 $0.41 $0.25
Analyst Estimates $0.28 $0.13 $0.31 $0.16
Difference -3.5% +53.8% +32.2% +56.2%

With earnings seemingly in-line with estimates, why have shares fallen so hard? This article takes a look at what happened, takeaways from the second quarter as well as where we believe shares will trade over the coming quarters.

Q2 Takeaways

Having covered Vipshop since 2013, and with our latest article detailing Q1 earnings back in May, we were asked by several SA readers about what investors should expect going into Q2 earnings. Here's what we had to say:

With the way shares have ran since the last earnings report, VIPS will likely see a pullback after earnings, no matter what they report. For long-term shareholders, it won't matter as shares should continue to climb over time. VIPS should report strong numbers.

As expected, shares dropped, however, we didn't expect a 30% fall to take place either. After earnings came out, we were asked by readers about the recent plunge in share price and here's what

This article was written by

5.22K Followers
I started investing at an early age and learned many valuable lessons along the way. One of those tough lessons was quickly learning not to blindly trust Wall Street analysts. Over the years and decades, I’ve used those tough lessons to better myself and to refine my research and stock picking skills. From a ‘boots on the ground’ approach, to crunching the data and interviewing CEOs, I enjoy covering a wide variety of industries and sectors and providing like-minded investors detailed analysis that they can’t find anywhere else. I have a journalism background – winning numerous awards – which helps me dive into the details and uncover things that many people overlook. I am a medium to long term investor and spend most of my focus on tech and growth companies. In addition, I also look to capitalize on trends such as investing in the ‘stay at home plays’ during covid which ran 100%-200%. I’m married with 4 kids and hold an M.S. degree from Liberty University and an B.A. in Communications from the University of Utah.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long VIPS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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