This is a Z4 Research (Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc...) Pre Quarter Update
Recent history. Vestas (OTCPK:VWDRY) shares have been on the move. In our last piece for Seeking Alpha in July, with the stock trading at $38, we established an upside target of $48 with an upper end of range target of $57 (our stretch target). Since then, Vestas shares have ranged above our target moving as high as $52.44 after the company re-introduced (as suspected) their 2020 guidance. The guidance ranges they re-introduced were unchanged for revenue vs the levels they had prior to suspension. There have been some pullbacks in the green space along the way, including in early September which saw many renewable names shrink back on profit-taking and thoughts of too far too fast action in the space, in general. We saw that pullback in the shares as simple profit-taking as other high-profile green space names (Tesla (TSLA) chief among them) began a bout of profit-taking post-split.
Meanwhile, fundamental advancement for 2021 figures continues with little apparent COVID-19 impact.
3Q20 Orders: 3.1 GW quarter to date (this should be ~ 2.3 B euros before consideration of unannounced orders (see below)). We were looking for "a lot" of order announcements heading into quarter end, and they didn't disappoint with over 0.9 GW today alone taking the pre-unannounced order flow over 10 GW, which should be viewed favorably by a number of analysts prompting them to lift their order expectations for full year 2020 (some are down at 14 GW for the full year, which is simply too low and means they are a drag on 2021 revenue and EBITDA as well).
- This compares to 4.7 GW announced in 3Q19, of which in that quarter 2.1 GW fell into the "unannounced" category, a figure
