Colombia's Declining Oil Industry Could Trigger An Economic Crisis

Nov. 03, 2020 1:13 PM ET, , , , 6 Comments

Summary

  • Colombia's economic outlook is worsening as oil prices soften.
  • A lack of investment and proven reserves could challenge Colombia's economic growth.
  • The decline of Colombia's oil industry could trigger an economic crisis.

Once again, the strife-torn Latin American nation of Colombia finds itself facing yet another crisis. After decades of civil conflict, a failed peace deal with the largest guerilla group the FARC, rising violence, and the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Andean nation's energy self-sufficiency is deteriorating posing a direct threat to economic development. Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy stated in April 2020 that Colombia finished 2019 with proven oil reserves of just over 2 billion barrels giving the country a production life of 6.3 years. These limited reserves, which are less than Argentina's, roughly a quarter of Guyana and Ecuador's and less than a sixth of Brazil's pose a direct threat to Colombia's development and economic growth.

You see, the extraction of crude oil has become an important driver of economic growth for the Andean country. It was responsible for Colombia experiencing some of the highest rates of GDP growth over the last decade in Latin America. At the height of the last oil boom in 2013, Colombia's GDP expanded 5.1% year over year which was higher than many other countries in South America including the continent's largest economy Brazil which only grew by 3%. It was also higher than South America's 2013 annual average of 3.4%.

Growth has declined significantly as the price of crude oil weakened after the August 2014 oil price crash. By 2017, the Andean country's GDP only expanded by 1.4%, its lowest level since the 2009 global financial crisis where the economy only grew 1.1%. Since the oil price collapse, which began in August 2014, Colombia's economic growth has slowed significantly. The sharp decline in oil prices not only weighed on the economy but also caused the Colombian peso to dive and triggered every growing budget deficits. For 2017, Bogota's budget deficit ballooned out to 2.5% of GDP, although this was lower

This article was written by

Colombian, lawyer, risk manager, consultant, full-time investor. Long only, focused on commodities and infrastructure in Latin America.Disclosure: All articles are my opinion and they should not be construed as advice to buy or sell any securities. Investors should perform their own due diligence and if necessary consult a financial adviser before trading.

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