IHS Markit's flash PMI data indicated divergent economic trends among the major developed economies in November, with accelerating growth in the US contrasting with renewed downturns in the eurozone and UK, while Japan's downturn eased.
To a large extent, the varying economic trends reflected the introduction of tougher COVID-19 restrictions in many European countries as governments sought to contain second waves of virus infections, while the US relaxed its restrictions and Japan left its measures unchanged.
The data hint at a modest cooling of global economic growth, though nothing approaching the severity of the downturn seen earlier in the year at the height of the pandemic.
Manufacturing generally fared better than services, thanks to rising global trade, and sentiment improved amid encouraging vaccine developments. However, only in the US, and to a lesser extent, Germany, did this translate into higher employment.
Developed world growth slows
Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone, Japan and UK, which collectively account for approximately half of global GDP, indicated an expansion of business activity for the fifth consecutive month in November, though the rate of expansion was the weakest since the recovery from severe lockdowns in the second quarter began. At 51.2, the G4 economies' flash PMI output index^ was down from 52.6 in October, and also well below the long-run survey average of 53.5 seen in the five years prior to the pandemic. The reading therefore hints at a slowing in the rate of expansion to a pace further below the recent long-run average.
^The flash PMIs are based on around 80% of the total number of survey replies usually received. As such, they provide the first, internationally comparable, insights into how economic conditions are changing. Currently, flash PMI are produced for the United States, the eurozone, Japan, the United Kingdom and Australia, encompassing manufacturing and service sectors in each economy. These survey data can
