I was recently reading Saxo Bank’s “10 Outrageous Predictions for 2021.” As stated in the title, it’s a little tongue-in-cheek, detailing a series of “unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets.”
Consider the following as carefully (or un-carefully) as you choose…
- A successful COVID-19 vaccine kills companies: The vaccine we’ve all been waiting for unwittingly creates a swarm of zombies.
- Amazon (AMZN) “buys” Cyprus: (The) tech giant relocates its EU HQ to Cyprus to avoid a government crackdown.
- Germany bails out France: It’s Germany to the rescue as France’s banking system stands on the brink of collapse.
- Blockchain tech kills fake news: Verizon (VZ), Twitter (TWTR), and Facebook (FB) unite to save the truth and themselves.
- China’s new digital currency inspires tectonic shift in capital flows: China opens up its capital account, giving foreign investors full access for the first time.
- Revolutionary fusion design catapults humanity into energy abundance: The investment winds favouring (their spelling, not mine) “traditional” green energy are about to stop blowing.
- Universal basic income decimates big cities: Commercial real estate is crushed as workers say “bye-bye” to big-city life.
- Disruption dividend creates Citizens Technology Fund: Social and economic anxieties are consigned to the past as new fund alleviates inequality.
- Sun shines on silver, which sizzles on solar panel demand: Solar panel demand sees silver’s price skyrocket to $50/oz.
- Next-generation tech supercharges frontier and emerging markets: Investors flock to new frontiers as new-age tech spurs productivity boom.
So, you tell me… Which do you find most likely?
A Warning Against Getting Too Cocky
It should be fairly obvious that the predictions above don’t actually constitute Saxo’s official market forecast for 2021. Instead, they represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk.
Investors have far too
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