Miller Industries: Market Leader With 60% Upside, 12.4x P/E Is A Large Discount To The Market

Jan. 11, 2021 12:48 PM ETMiller Industries, Inc. (MLR) StockMLR10 Comments

Summary

  • Miller is a franchise business with a 60% total return potential; supported by undervalued metrics, decent net cash on the books, and robust earnings growth.
  • Miller has a moat by being the #1 world leader in towing and recovery equipment, with the largest distribution network in its industry.
  • This company is a P/E trade: trading at 12.4x on normalized FY22e.
  • Miller is trading at a discount to the S&P 500 and S&P Small Cap 600 indices that are trading at high multiples.
  • EPS CAGR of 21% and revenue CAGR of 10% over the last 5-year period through 2019.

Franchise Business; 12.4x P/E, 21% CAGR in 5-year EPS

Miller (NYSE:MLR) is the No. 1 world leader of towing and recovery equipment, with the largest distribution network in the industry. With a solid business franchise, Miller has been constantly innovating and trying to re-invent the wheel, introducing the Century M100 [the largest tow truck of its kind] in FY2019. The company’s moat lies in its dominating market share. Aside from its strong business credentials, the company has been deleveraging its balance sheet and recently attained a debt-free status, with rising net cash. This company is a P/E trade, boasting exceedingly low multiples [on our normalized FY2022 estimates trading at 12.4x] relative to the underlying market, and it is also an under-covered gem. Please see our attached financial model at the end of this report for our estimates and for your reference.

The company hit record EPS in FY2019, before being hit by Covid-19, with a 10.6% CAGR in revenues and 21.2% CAGR in diluted EPS over a 5-year period through 2019. We see a recovery in the cards by fiscal year 2022, and the company should inch closer to its prior record earnings level, leading to gains in the stock price. Overall, with a franchise business, undervalued metrics, and decent cash on the books, Miller is a recovery play with 60% total return potential.

World Leader in Towing and Recovery; Public For 27 Years

Miller is the world’s largest manufacturer of towing and recovery equipment. They make bodies for light- and heavy-duty wreckers, along with car carriers and multi-vehicles trailers. Products are sold and serviced through the industry’s largest distribution network. Miller has adopted the strategy of acquiring several of the most well-recognized brands in towing and recovery equipment manufacturing industry. The company has domestic manufacturing subsidiaries in Tennessee and Pennsylvania, and foreign manufacturing subsidiaries in France

This article was written by

Value Investment Principals [VIP] has a 12-year track record, starting in 2009, focusing on unique under-covered stocks. Our typical ideas have zero/limited research coverage, “deep-value”, growth, high cash and FCF [Free Cash Flow]. We search for High Dividend Yields to appeal to retail clients, creating a steady source of income. We have a strong track record of performance for both large institutional and High Net-Worth Individuals [HNIs].Approximately 2/3 of our ideas have been in growth industries (with earnings growth of more than 2x the GDP growth rate). Our deep-value ideas all have multiple catalysts that are likely to unfold over the next 6-12 months to unlock value. We offer 10+ page research reports with detailed IS/BS/CF forecasts, rigorous ratio analysis and Discounted Cash Flow valuations alongside price targets on all recommendations. Our team consists of 3 highly skilled analysts with Masters degrees and extensive industry experience. Bottom-line, all of our ideas have been ignored by Wall Street analysts, and this creates opportunity in undervalued, under followed stocks with high dividend yields and growth.Sandy Mehta, CFA, our founder and Director, has over 30-years’ experience as a PM of a 5-Star award-winning small-cap fund as well as a flagship $15 billion Global Equity Fund. Sandy also founded Acumen Capital Management in 2004, and incubated a global long-short $200 million Hedge Fund. In 2015, he founded equity research firm Evaluate Research, his third entrepreneurial venture in global financial services, focusing on unfollowed equities. He has an MBA degree [Director’s List Honors] from the Wharton School, and a Master of International Management [with Honors] from the American Graduate School of International Management. He attained his CFA at the age of 25.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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