KKR Might Be A Surprise Winner Of A Rocky 2023

Dec. 23, 2022 1:15 PM ETKKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) StockKKR43 Comments
The Value Puzzle
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Summary

  • KKR's stock is down nearly 37% this year, indicating heightened investor skepticism.
  • While unrealized carried interest has taken a beating and book value declined, fee-related income stayed strong and is even up for the year.
  • With over $110bn in dry powder, KKR is in an excellent position to benefit from the current uncertain environment.
  • Fund raising was surprisingly strong even in a tough environment.
  • I think KKR has 40% upside from current levels and might offer an opportunity to get in at rock bottom levels during 2023.

Schwarzpulver Barrel

With over $100bn in dry powder KKR is poised to benefit from rocky markets

Berryspun/iStock via Getty Images

Investment thesis

NYSE:KKR is one of the leading alternative asset managers. It has been building a sticky asset base that generates reliable management

This article was written by

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While being labeled "analyst" at Seeking Alpha I prefer the old terms of "contributor" or "author" as those better describe my current situation. Even though I worked as a buy-side analyst for many years in the past I am not writing on Seeking Alpha as a professional analyst. Those times are behind me and I simply write my personal independent views and hope to enter fruitful discusssions in the comment section.As I have always been intrigued by the dynamics of the broader economy and stock markets in particular I am personally invested in the stock market since my youth for over 30 years now. I followed my calling and studied economics and finance to work in the financial industry. I stuck to the buy side to avoid conflicts of interest and as I am more interested in analyzing stocks and markets than selling my views. I worked as fund co-manager and analyst for a leading mutual fund company responsible for long-only stock market investments especially in financial companies. The investment style was strongly fundamentally driven but also with attention to newsflow and upcoming catalysts impacting stock prices short term. Later on I widened my area of expertise by working as an analyst at a multi billion dollar multi strategy hedge fund. There I learned to appreciate the importance of capital structures when analyzing investments which is still often ignored by investors. Furthermore I gained experience in analyzing arbitrage and M&A situations. Ever eager to get new insights and admittedly also to get a better work life balance I changed jobs to work at a financial regulatory authority. In this position I was responsible for developing international regulation as well as supervising specific companies. I loved the international aspects and the position gave me good insights into the workings of regulation as well as into the politics behind it. In those functions I had extensive contacts to corporate executives of all levels and departments via 1:1 or group meetings, IR events or sometimes week-long on-site inspections. This gave me invaluable insights into companies that is otherwise very hard to get. Due to this experience I also learned how to read between the lines and know very well that messages are made for a specific audience and therefore need to be taken with a grain of salt. I always enjoyed a fruitful discussion which is why I have now decided to round off my career by sharing my views and discussing investment ideas with the broader public and in turn benefit from their feedback. Due to compliance reasons I will however refrain from explicitely writing about concrete experiences gained during my career and will limit my contributions to publicly available information while drawing upon my experience from my diverse background in the financial industry.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of KKR, BAM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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