SPY: The Market May Be Wrong Now

Sep. 16, 2024 9:30 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), SPY, VOO, , , , , , , , , , , , 20 Comments
(8min)

Summary

  • I maintain a “Hold” rating for the S&P 500, skeptical of the market's bullish expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut.
  • The Energy CPI component deflation contrasts with rising rent and core services costs, complicating the inflation outlook and justifying a cautious Fed approach.
  • The Fed's likely 25 basis point cut, driven by mixed economic data, could increase market volatility due to current over-optimistic pricing.
  • Investors should remain vigilant against FOMO, as increased volatility may erode recent gains; a “Hold” stance on SP500 is prudent.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Beyond the Wall Investing get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

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Richard Drury

Intro & Thesis

Since the start of this year, I have consistently assigned a “Hold” rating to the S&P 500 index (SP500, NYSEARCA:SPY, NYSEARCA:VOO). Occasionally, I've shared my skeptical perspective on market developments, highlighting macro

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This article was written by

12.24K Followers
Daniel Sereda is chief investment analyst at a family office whose investments span continents and diverse asset classes. This requires him to navigate through a plethora of information on a daily basis. His expertise is in filtering this wealth of data to extract the most critical ideas. He runs the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing in which he provides access to the same information that institutional market participants prioritize in their analysis. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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