Jobs Situation: Institutions - Good, Households - Hurting

John Early
2.21K Followers
(5min)

Summary

  • The Household Survey of the employment situation indicates a much darker view of the economy than the Establishment Survey.
  • Job growth is not a leading indicator. It lags quarterly GDP growth by about five months.
  • Job growth should strengthen in September, October, and November. This would be a lagging confirmation the economy strengthened in Q2, not an indication of improving growth.
  • Improving job numbers may boost market sentiment temporarily, but I believe the stock market is topping, with a recession imminent within months.

Three women and two men in a business meeting.

Hinterhaus Productions

A Foul Mood in Households

Employment Level the job measure in the Household Survey of the employment situation (blue line in figure 1) showed a decline of 66 thousand jobs from August of 2023 to August 2024. By contrast, Nonfarm Payrolls in

This article was written by

2.21K Followers
Have managed money for clients as an independent advisor since 1991. Published a newsletter ECONOMIC LEADS from 1988 to 1993. Have an economics degree from Vanderbilt University. Focus on the macro picture forecasting the US economy and broad stock market. Also have a model to estimate long term equity returns for several countries.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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