The markets, which are ultimately a continuous mechanism for discounting expectations, had been pricing in Trump's victory for weeks, with (1) stock market rallies discounting a more favorable regulatory and fiscal environment for companies, (2) sovereign bond declines discounting a higher deficit (no one believes that Elon
Bullish Market Reactions To Trump's Victory Were Correct
Summary
- Markets had anticipated Trump's victory, leading to stock rallies, bond declines, and a stronger dollar due to expected higher deficits and inflation.
- Stock markets are bullish on Trump, with small caps showing strong gains, driven by his pro-market stance, tax cuts, and deregulation promises.
- Bonds suffered significant declines, reflecting concerns over increased deficits and inflation, making it hard for bonds to appreciate without economic cooling.
- Gold's decline post-election is attributed to the dollar's appreciation, but its long-term uptrend remains intact due to geopolitical factors and central bank demand.
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