Europe Races To Draft Plan For Ukraine Peace

Mar. 03, 2025 7:30 AM ET51 Comments
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Rallying support

European leaders have rallied to support Ukraine in the wake of the heated meeting between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump on Friday, which once again fueled concerns of the U.S. potentially pulling support for Kyiv. A proposed plan towards a peace deal could potentially include an initial one-month truce with Russia, which would cover air, sea and energy infrastructure - but not ground fighting.

Path to peace: Following a summit with European leaders in London on Sunday, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the U.K., France and others will work with Ukraine on a plan to end the fighting, and then present the plan to the U.S. Starmer said Europe must do the "heavy lifting," but insisted that the effort "must have strong U.S. backing." The leaders also agreed to keep military aid flowing to Ukraine and keep increasing economic pressure on Russia, ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and security, and develop a "coalition of the willing" to defend a potential peace deal.

Starmer also announced a more than $2.7B loan to provide more military aid to Ukraine - backed by profits from frozen Russian assets - and a new deal for Ukraine to use around $2B of U.K. export finance to buy over 5,000 air defense missiles. The European Council will meet on Thursday to discuss a military aid package for Ukraine, likely worth more than $20B, and steps to increase defense spending.

Bigger picture: "While the U.S. has taken a step back from brokering a peace deal, markets are not pricing out the chance of a Ukraine-Russia truce," Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, noted. As a result, hopes of increased military spending are driving European defense stocks higher. The Stoxx 600 Aerospace and Defense index surged nearly 7% on Monday. Notable gainers include the U.K.'s BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESY), France's Dassault Aviation (OTCPK:DUAVF), Thales SA (OTCPK:THLEF), and Germany's Rheinmetall (OTCPK:RNMBF). The pan-European STOXX 600 index (STOXX) was up nearly 1%, starting the week on a high note after nine straight weekly gains.

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