Why Nebius Is A High-Conviction Play

Yiannis Zourmpanos
9.17K Followers
(12min)

Summary

  • Nebius reported 600% AI cloud revenue growth YoY, with Q4 2024 revenue surging 466% to $37.9M.
  • A $700M oversubscribed funding round included Nvidia, Accel, and Orbis, reinforcing confidence in Nebius’s AI cloud expansion.
  • Plans to deploy 22,000 Nvidia GPUs by 2025, positioning Nebius as a cost-effective alternative to AWS and CoreWeave.
  • Burning $1.1B annually, but $2.45B in cash reserves provides a 2-3 year runway to achieve $1B+ ARR in 2025.
  • With a $7B market cap vs. CoreWeave’s $23B, NBIS stock could double or triple if it scales successfully in the AI cloud race.
Futuristic Technology Innovation Background

akinbostanci

Investment Thesis

Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) is a compelling investment prospect as a new player in the AI infrastructure space, recently funded by NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). It has built a robust AI cloud ecosystem on state-of-the-art proprietary

This article was written by

9.17K Followers
Yiannis Zourmpanos, founder of Yiazou IQ, an AI-driven stock research platform providing all-in-one stock reports. Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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