David Trood
In the Fed’s most recent Summary of Economic Projections, it again revised its outlook for 2025 inflation upward, now near 3%. This aligns with the opening line of our Q3 update (well before the election) from last
Q1 Market Cycle Update: Probably Approaching The Peak
Summary
- Corporate profits continue to rise, but with profitability metrics near record highs, there is probably not much upside left in earnings.
- Gold’s strong momentum hints at a pending commodity surge over the next year.
- Stocks remain the best investment for now, followed by gold and industrial metals, with a potential rangebound S&P 500 and flat long-term yields.
- If and when a commodity shock—particularly an energy shock—occurs, this will likely come primarily at the expense of equities.
- A way to track the market cycle in real time, rooted in 150 years of market history, is presented.
I study markets from a long-term historical view, especially the interaction between yields and inflation across all major asset classes. My most original work is probably in the following areas: long-term sector rotations; Gibson's Paradox; Long Waves; market cycles; innovation supercycles; global violence supercycles; intraweek market anomalies; cost disease and inflation; and cost disease and demographic change.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SGOL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I have a number of long equity positions, as well as smaller positions in precious metals, short-term Treasuries, and long-term TIPS.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.