Apple's $500B Power Move

Yiannis Zourmpanos
9.89K Followers
(11min)

Summary

  • Apple will invest $500B over 4 years in U.S. manufacturing, workforce, and AI, doubling its Advanced Manufacturing Fund from $5B to $10B across 13 states.
  • A new 250K sq. ft. server plant in Texas will support Apple Intelligence rollout, enhancing supply security while reducing foreign dependency amid 54% China tariffs.
  • Apple's workforce grew from 161K to 164K in FY24, and 20K more hires are planned for AI and silicon research to boost product stickiness and service revenue.
  • Domestic chip production starts CY25 via TSMC Arizona, supporting Apple's new A18 and C1 chips, cutting Qualcomm's reliance, and improving long-term gross margins.
  • Apple risks up to 28% FY25 earnings drop in trade war scenarios; rerouting iPhone production to India lowers tariff costs by ~$2.8B per $10B imported.
Apple macbook pro

gece33

Investment Thesis

Since I last covered Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (AAPL:CA), the stock has been down, underperforming the broader market with a return of -21%, trailing the S&P 500’s -16%. The previous article was focused on margin expansion and services-led earnings growth in Q1-FY25, with Apple deriving solid

This article was written by

9.89K Followers
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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