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Estee Lauder: Do Not Expect Beauty Reimagined To Turnaround The Company In The Short Term
Summary
- Estee Lauder's 85% drop from its 2022 high is not a buying opportunity due to ongoing financial deterioration and challenging macroeconomic conditions.
- Latest developments show a 6.45% y/y revenue decline and worsening margins, with further financial deterioration expected.
- The global trade war and weak consumer sentiment, especially in Asia Pacific and EMEA, will continue to negatively impact EL's performance.
- Despite launching Beauty Reimagined, EL's high valuation and potential for further dividend cuts make it a risky investment; better opportunities exist elsewhere.
I am seasoned investor with more than 20 years of investment experience, specializing in identifying companies that have the potential to consistently outperform the broader market. My investment journey begin pre-2008 and I have experienced multiple market cycles, allowing me to develop a disciplined framework that combines both fundamental analysis and macroeconomic factors. I am generally sector and asset class agnostic. I believe that value and alpha can be found across the markets. However, I tend to focus on companies that have robust, consistent, and predictable cashflows which allows for more accurate valuation and sensitivity analysis. At the same time, I tend to pay close attention to macroeconomic developments as I believe these factors can drive market cycles and affect valuation discounts or premiums. Depending on market cycles, I may delve and explore opportunities in the fixed-income market as well. Finally, I am motivated to write on Seeking Alpha to not only share my insights but also to engage in discussions with the broader community. My goal is to provide actionable ideas, and exchange important insights with one another in the community. Whether you are a novice investor or a seasoned professional, I look forward to engage with all of you.Closely affiliated with Selendis Research
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Short position through short-selling of the stock, or purchase of put options or similar derivatives in EL over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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