bunhill
Tactical Buy trade
My baseline outlook for the S&P 500 (SP500, SPX, SPY) is a recessionary bear market with the AI bubble burst and possibly the credit event related to the bursting housing bubble as the economy
S&P 500: Top Of The Range, Death Cross - Sell
Summary
- The bounce is likely exhausted as the S&P 500 Index faces key resistance at the 5500 level, while the 50/200dma death cross is forming.
- Fundamentally, the S&P 500 Index is facing the Q1 earnings season, where companies are likely to guide lower, and analysts are likely to sharply reduce the earnings growth for 2025.
- Until the labor market weakens, my near-term outlook is still high volatility, and the next move is likely to revisit the bottom near the 5000 level.
Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA), member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance, research on Global-macro issues. Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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