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Palantir Isn't What You Think: Revealing The Growth Driver Markets Are Missing
Summary
- Palantir delivered $1.25 billion in 2024 free cash flow at a 44% margin, with only $12 million in CapEx.
- U.S. commercial revenue grew 54% YoY in Q4, driven by AIP deployment and 32 $10 million+ deals closed.
- Ontology powers PLTR’s role as the enterprise AI operating system, enabling agent-based automation at scale.
- A 40% FCF CAGR with 7% terminal growth supports a $175/share intrinsic value by 2030.
- Heavy reliance on U.S. government and commercial demand creates geographic concentration and potential policy-driven revenue volatility risks.
I am a full-time investor and independent research analyst with years of hands-on experience managing my own capital in the stock market. My primary focus lies in identifying undervalued breakout opportunities, companies that sit at the crossroads of deep value and explosive growth potential, particularly in technology, AI, fintech, and cloud infrastructure. I specialize in uncovering businesses that are misunderstood, overlooked, or on the brink of major re-ratings. My approach blends rigorous fundamental analysis with forward-looking strategy, using mental models and a proprietary framework to assess business quality, leadership execution, and scalable moats. I’m especially drawn to platform businesses with network effects, and inflection-point monetization models that the market has yet to fully price in. At the same time, I place a strong emphasis on risk control, monitoring cash flow resilience, balance sheet flexibility, and valuation floors to protect capital. My goal is not just to chase growth, but to invest where narrative change can unlock multi-year upside with limited downside. Through my writing, I aim to share institutional-grade research that is practical and engaging, empowering other investors to see beyond headlines and into the core drivers of durable value creation.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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