The Stock Market Has Not Bottomed: 2 Critical Indicators

(16min)

Summary

  • The US stock market is unlikely to have bottomed due to high recession risk and exceptionally elevated PE ratios.
  • Speculating on Trump’s tariff rollbacks or relying on technical indicators like the Zweig Breadth Thrust is ill-advised.
  • Historically, stock market troughs occur after a recession starts, and high PE ratios typically revert to average levels.
  • Active portfolio management is crucial now to capitalize on the bear market and potential bear market rallies.

Don"t touch my lolli

Sucker's Rally

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Many stock market commentators have become downright giddy with the belief that the US stock market has bottomed. Some of these pundits are bullish based on their political speculations related to President Trump’s trade

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This article was written by

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James A. Kostohryz has 20+ years of experience as a global investment professional. He has worked as an analyst at one of the world's largest asset management firms covering emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. He has also served as Global Portfolio Strategist and Head of International Investments for an investment bank. He is currently managing Investor Acumen, a firm specializing in global portfolio strategy, macro forecasting, and quant analytics.

James is the leader of the investing group Successful Portfolio Strategy, a service designed to empower investors to achieve investment performance through implementation of a portfolio strategy system. Features include: 2 model portfolios, tactical asset allocation and mentorship for execution, analysis via video and articles, and more. Learn More.

James also contributes to the group account Investor Acumen on Seeking Alpha.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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